AMAZON CRUSHES IT, NETFLIX SPLITS 10-1, EARNINGS CONTINUE STRONG | MARKET OPEN
AMAZON CRUSHES IT, NETFLIX SPLITS 10-1, EARNINGS CONTINUE STRONG | MARKET OPEN
190 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 24 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The recent pullback in Meta (META) is viewed as a significant buying opportunity, with some analysts buying shares around the $659 level due to its long-term AI prospects. Following blowout earnings driven by AWS growth, consider buying Amazon (AMZN) on any significant future dips, as analysts have set price targets as high as $335. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a top conviction holding, as its strong guidance does not yet include revenue from China, presenting a major source of potential future upside. With strong momentum and a recent analyst price target upgrade to $155, Robinhood (HOOD) presents a speculative opportunity ahead of its upcoming earnings report. As a broader strategy, consider increasing your portfolio allocation to the major tech Hyperscalers on any market weakness, as they are viewed as foundational long-term investments.

Detailed Analysis

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon "demolished earnings," causing the stock to jump significantly, trading around $248 - $250 after the open.
  • The key driver was the acceleration of Amazon Web Services (AWS), which grew 20% year-over-year. This was the fastest pace since 2022 and beat the "whisper number" (unofficial Wall Street expectation) of 18.9%.
  • CEO Andy Jassy stated, "We haven't seen this type of AWS growth since 2022," signaling to the market that demand for AI and cloud workloads is incredibly strong.
  • Other business segments also showed solid growth:
    • Online Stores: +10%
    • Third-Party Seller Services: +12%
    • Advertising: +24% (now an $18 billion quarterly run rate)
  • The company is investing heavily in its own AI chips, with Tranium 2 chips being "fully subscribed" and Tranium 3 expected in early 2026.
  • Amazon plans to spend $125 billion on CapEx this year, which is seen as a positive for semiconductor companies like NVIDIA.
  • A Bloomberg report mentioned that Amazon Robotics is working to automate 75% of the company's operations, which could eliminate 160,000 roles by 2027, potentially boosting margins in the long run.
  • The EPS beat was largely due to a $9.4 billion gain from its investment in the AI company Anthropic.

Takeaways

  • The market's primary focus was AWS growth. The strong beat indicates that demand for AI infrastructure is robust and Amazon is successfully capturing it.
  • The speaker suggests that AMZN could become a "cornerstone of a portfolio" for long-term investors.
  • While the stock saw a massive jump, the speaker advises caution, stating they "probably wouldn't chase it today" but would view future significant dips as buying opportunities.
  • The heavy investment in CapEx and in-house chips (Tranium) shows Amazon is serious about competing in the AI space, creating a "mini NVIDIA inside of Amazon."
  • Analyst sentiment is very bullish, with price target upgrades to $315 (Morgan Stanley) and $335 (Evercore).

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The stock showed incredible momentum, breaking through the $200 psychological barrier before its upcoming earnings report. It hit $200, $201, $202, $203, and even $204 during the stream.
  • The host noted that this is the first time the stock has hit these levels during open market hours.
  • The move to $200 happened before earnings, which was unexpected. The host had previously predicted this level might be reached after a strong earnings report.
  • The host believes Palantir will have a "massive quarter" and noted that with this pre-earnings run-up, there's a question of how much is already "baked in."
  • During the stream, Palantir's market cap surpassed that of Netflix (NFLX).

Takeaways

  • There is significant bullish momentum and speculation heading into Palantir's earnings on Monday.
  • The pre-earnings rally raises the bar for the company's results. The report will need to be exceptionally strong to sustain and build on these new price levels.
  • The speaker suggests that for investors selling covered calls, it might be wise to choose a higher strike price (e.g., $230-$240 a month out) to avoid risking shares on a potentially explosive earnings move.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock was trading up, around $206 - $207.
  • CEO Jensen Huang was in South Korea, where he was treated like a "rock star" by investors.
  • NVIDIA announced a major deal to ship 260,000 GPUs to South Korea, with Samsung and SK Group each receiving 50,000 for their new AI factories.
  • Jensen Huang commented on the China situation, stating that NVIDIA's market share there went from 95% to 0% due to U.S. government policies. He is forecasting zero revenue from China.
  • President Trump was quoted on Air Force One discussing the potential for NVIDIA to sell certain (non-Blackwell) chips to China.

Takeaways

  • The fact that NVIDIA's strong performance and guidance does not include any revenue from China is seen as a major bullish point. Any future re-entry into the Chinese market would be pure upside to the current forecasts.
  • The deals in South Korea demonstrate continued massive global demand for NVIDIA's GPUs for building out AI infrastructure.
  • The speaker believes that despite its run-up, the stock may "not be that expensive" when considering the growth potential, especially if China revenue returns.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Apple also "crushed" its earnings report, with the stock trading around $276 after hitting $284 at one point.
  • A major highlight was the company increasing its Q4 revenue growth guidance to 10-12%, a level not seen in nearly two years.
  • While overall results were strong, the company had a slight miss on iPhone sales and revenue from China.
  • Apple's AI strategy appears to be different from its peers. It spent only $12.7 billion on CapEx for the entire year, compared to the $120 billion spent by Google, Amazon, and Microsoft in a single quarter. This suggests Apple plans to partner with AI model providers rather than building everything itself.

Takeaways

  • The strong forward guidance was the most exciting part of the report, signaling a potential re-acceleration of growth.
  • The speaker is personally cautious on the stock at these levels, stating, "Would I be buying Apple here? No," citing its aggressive valuation.
  • However, they acknowledge that as 7% of the S&P 500, Apple's performance is critical for the overall market, and its massive investor base continues to hold.

Meta (META)

  • Despite a strong earnings report, the stock has been underperforming, trading down to $656 during the stream.
  • The speaker believes the market is "being stupid about Meta," attributing the drop to a "knee-jerk reaction" over a tax charge-off and continued high CapEx spending on AI.
  • The host revealed they personally bought a "nibble" of Meta at $659 and also bought some for a family member, viewing the drop as an opportunity.
  • There was immense demand for Meta's $25 billion bond offering, with $125 billion in orders, indicating strong institutional confidence in the company's credit.

Takeaways

  • The speaker sees the current weakness in Meta as a potential buying opportunity, arguing that a 15% decline in a hyperscaler with a massive moat is a rare event.
  • The investment thesis for Meta hinges on trusting Mark Zuckerberg's long-term vision for AI and the metaverse, which requires heavy CapEx.
  • The stock is considered "relatively cheap" at a valuation of 20 times its projected 2026 earnings, given its growth prospects.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock had a very strong day, running up over 7% to break through $150.
  • The move was seen as particularly bullish because it was happening independently of the crypto market, which was flat.
  • A KeyBank analyst upgraded their price target on the stock from $135 to $155.
  • The strong earnings from other tech giants like Amazon and Apple are seen as a positive for Robinhood, as market strength increases trading activity and assets under custody.
  • The upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated, with speculation that the company could see a "monster beat" partly due to volume from prediction markets.

Takeaways

  • There is strong bullish momentum heading into Robinhood's earnings next week, driven by an analyst upgrade and positive market sentiment.
  • The stock's ability to rally without a corresponding crypto rally is a positive sign of its diversifying business.
  • Investors are looking for a strong earnings report to justify the recent run-up and continue the momentum.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH)

  • The crypto market was showing signs of recovery after a recent dip.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $109,600, up from a low of $105,000.
  • Ethereum (ETH) was at $3,850, up from a low of $3,700.
  • A clip from analyst Tom Lee highlighted crypto as a top-performing asset class over the last decade and positioned it at the intersection of two "super cycles": Wall Street's adoption of blockchain and the rise of agentic AI.

Takeaways

  • The crypto market is showing some resilience.
  • The broader investment thesis, as articulated by guests on the show, is that crypto and tokenization are long-term trends that will continue to grow.
  • Investors can gain exposure through various means, including direct ownership or through crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD).

Other Investment Mentions

  • Hyperscalers (Theme): The host believes that the major tech companies (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta) are the "easiest investments of our lifetime" due to their moats, cash flow, and deep integration into daily life. They are considering increasing their portfolio allocation to these names on dips.
  • Netflix (NFLX): Announced a 10-for-1 stock split. This makes the stock more accessible for smaller investors but doesn't change the company's fundamental value. The host is not a huge fan due to its high valuation.
  • Reddit (RDDT): Had a blowout earnings report with 68% year-over-year growth. The speaker believes it has an undervalued "AI moat" because its vast user-generated content can be used to train large language models.
  • Coinbase (COIN): Also had a strong earnings report, with institutional trading revenue growing 120%. The stock was up over 9%. The long-term bull case is that Coinbase becomes the "everything exchange" for tokenized assets.
  • Michael Burry: The famous investor from "The Big Short" tweeted for the first time in two years, implying the market is a bubble and the "only winning move is not to play." The host interprets this as a bullish contrarian indicator, suggesting Burry's fear contributes to the "wall of worry" that bull markets need to climb.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - Intro 08:11 - Amazon 22:20 - Burry 28:00 - NVDA 44:00 - Market Open 1:28:17 - SEC Chair 2:04:00 - Coinbase
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!