AMAZON, APPLE, COINBASE, REDDIT, MSTR + MORE EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
AMAZON, APPLE, COINBASE, REDDIT, MSTR + MORE EARNINGS | MARKET CLOSE
191 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 40 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The recent 11% drop in Meta Platforms (META) stock is viewed as a significant buying opportunity, as the market overreacted to a one-time charge while ignoring strong underlying revenue growth. Amazon (AMZN) is a high-conviction long-term investment following blowout earnings, driven by the re-acceleration of its AWS cloud business and strong demand for its Tranium AI chips. Apple (AAPL) signaled a major growth re-acceleration with guidance for 10-12% revenue growth, making its new all-time highs potentially justified for investors. For a leveraged play on Bitcoin, consider MicroStrategy (MSTR), as the company's own guidance assumes a BTC price of $150,000 by year-end. Finally, Coinbase (COIN) showed strong corporate conviction by adding $300 million of Bitcoin to its balance sheet after a solid earnings report.

Detailed Analysis

Amazon (AMZN)

  • The podcast highlighted an extremely strong earnings report for Amazon, which caused the stock to rise over 10% in after-hours trading to around $245 - $255.
  • Earnings Beat:
    • EPS: $1.95 vs. $1.57 expected (a 24% beat).
    • Revenue: $180.17 billion vs. $177.8 billion expected.
  • AWS Re-acceleration: The most important news was the growth of its cloud business, Amazon Web Services (AWS).
    • AWS revenue grew 20.2% year-over-year, a pace the CEO said they "haven't seen since 2022."
    • This growth rate beat even the highest "whisper estimates" from Wall Street, which were in the 18.5% to 19% range. This was seen as the main reason for the stock's big jump.
  • Strong Guidance: Amazon guided for Q4 revenue between $206 billion and $213 billion, which is ahead of Street expectations and would be its first $200 billion quarter.
  • AI & Custom Chips: The company is seeing strong demand for its custom AI chips, Tranium.
    • Tranium 2 is now a "multi-billion dollar business" that grew 150% quarter-over-quarter.
    • Tranium 3 is expected to be 40% better than Tranium 2, and demand is already high.
  • Capital Expenditure (CapEx): Amazon plans to spend approximately $125 billion on CapEx in 2025 and expects that amount to increase in 2026, signaling heavy investment in AI and data center capacity.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The speakers were extremely bullish on Amazon. The strong AWS growth put to rest the narrative that Amazon's cloud business was losing ground to competitors.
  • Long-Term Hold: The consensus was that Amazon is a strong long-term investment. One speaker noted that before the earnings pop, the stock had been flat for the year, representing a great buying opportunity.
  • Multiple Growth Drivers: Beyond AWS, the company's advertising business is also growing strongly (22% YoY), and it remains a leader in e-commerce and is making significant investments in robotics.
  • Buying the Stock: While the speakers were bullish, they cautioned against "chasing" the stock after a 10%+ jump. For long-term investors, however, they felt the current price is still attractive given the company's future growth prospects.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Apple also reported earnings, and while the initial reaction was negative, the stock reversed and rallied to new all-time highs of around $284 after hours.
  • Earnings Results:
    • EPS: $1.85 vs. $1.77 expected (a beat).
    • Revenue: $102.47 billion vs. $102.24 billion expected (a slight beat).
    • iPhone Revenue: $49.03 billion vs. $50 billion expected (a miss).
    • Services Revenue: $28.75 billion vs. $28.17 billion expected (a beat). This high-margin business continues to be a strong point.
  • Game-Changing Guidance: The key driver for the stock's rally was its guidance for the holiday quarter (Q4).
    • Apple guided for revenue growth of 10% to 12% year-over-year.
    • The speaker noted this is a "literal double" of Apple's growth rate over the last two years, which is why the market reacted so positively.
  • AI on the Horizon: CEO Tim Cook confirmed that a "big AI update to Siri is still on track to launch next year." This is seen as a major future catalyst.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The extremely strong guidance for the holiday quarter overshadowed the slight miss on current iPhone revenue.
  • Growth Re-acceleration: The forecast of 10-12% growth signals a significant re-acceleration for the world's largest company, which excited investors.
  • Services and AI are Key: The continued strength of the high-margin Services division and the promise of a major AI integration next year are central to the bullish thesis for Apple. The stock hitting all-time highs on this news shows the market's confidence in this future.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta's stock was down 11.45% on the day of the podcast following its own earnings report from the previous day.
  • Reason for the Drop: The market reacted negatively to an EPS miss and concerns about the company's high spending on Capital Expenditures (CapEx) for AI.
  • Bullish Counter-Argument: The speaker was passionately bullish on Meta, calling the sell-off a "disgrace" and "the biggest bullshit move down."
    • He argued the EPS miss was due to a one-time, non-cash tax charge and that the underlying business is very strong, with revenue growing at 26%.
    • He stated it's illogical for the market to punish Meta for buying AI chips while rewarding the company that sells them (NVIDIA).
    • He noted that Meta's recent $25 billion bond offering saw $125 billion in demand, a sign of strong investor confidence.
  • Action Taken: The speaker "bought the dip" in Meta, expressing strong conviction that the market was wrong.

Takeaways

  • Contrarian Bullish Opportunity: The speakers view the significant drop in Meta's stock as a major buying opportunity.
  • Look Beyond the Headlines: The key insight is that the market overreacted to the headline EPS number without digging into the details (like the one-time charge) or the strength of the underlying business (revenue growth and free cash flow).
  • Long-Term AI Play: Meta's heavy spending is a direct investment in the AI future. For investors who believe in that future, this dip could be an attractive entry point into a company that is a core part of the AI ecosystem.

Bitcoin (BTC) & Crypto-related Stocks

  • The podcast covered several crypto assets and related stocks, with mixed sentiment.
  • Bitcoin (BTC):
    • The price was down on the day, and the speaker mentioned a bearish historical statistic: the last time October was a down month for Bitcoin, November saw a -36% drop (in 2018).
    • However, a major bullish catalyst was announced: Coinbase (COIN) confirmed it purchased $300 million worth of Bitcoin for its corporate treasury.
  • MicroStrategy (MSTR):
    • This company, which holds a large amount of Bitcoin, saw its stock move with the crypto market.
    • The most significant news was that the company stated in its guidance that it is assuming Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of the year. This caused the stock to rally from its lows.
  • Coinbase (COIN):
    • Reported a strong earnings beat on both revenue and EPS ($1.50 vs. $1.17 expected).
    • The stock rallied after the announcement that it was adding $300 million of Bitcoin to its balance sheet, a strong signal of confidence.
  • BMNR:
    • This stock is described as a leveraged play on Ethereum (ETH). It was down significantly with the broader crypto market.
    • The speakers who hold it are not worried, stating their thesis is a long-term belief in Ethereum and the tokenization of assets. They caution that this is a volatile asset and not for investors who can't handle sharp price swings.

Takeaways

  • High Volatility: The crypto space remains highly volatile. Price action can be sharp and influenced by both market sentiment and specific news events.
  • Corporate Adoption is a Bullish Sign: Major companies like Coinbase and MicroStrategy are not only holding Bitcoin but are actively buying more and making extremely bullish public forecasts. This provides a strong long-term tailwind.
  • Know Your Thesis: For leveraged plays like MSTR and BMNR, the investment thesis is tied directly to the future price of the underlying crypto asset (Bitcoin or Ethereum). These are not traditional fundamental investments and come with significant risk and volatility.

Other Notable Mentions

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Continues to be the bellwether for the AI boom. The speaker noted its $5 trillion valuation as a sign of the market's enthusiasm. A government official's comment about not selling "Blackwell" chips to China caused a minor dip, highlighting the stock's sensitivity to geopolitical news.
  • Reddit (RDDT): Reported a massive 54% earnings beat and strong 74% ad revenue growth. The stock was extremely volatile post-earnings. The speaker, who bought before the report, noted that Wall Street has consistently underestimated the company, suggesting a potential opportunity for those who do their homework.
  • Roku (ROKU): The stock plummeted despite beating on revenue and EPS. The cause was a miss on a key metric: streaming hours. This serves as a lesson that for some companies, user engagement metrics are more important to the market than headline financial numbers.
  • Netflix (NFLX): Announced a 10-for-1 stock split. This news caused the stock to rise about 2%. The speaker noted this will make the stock more accessible for smaller investors to buy 100-share lots and sell covered calls.
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About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!