ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS, AMD EARNINGS, CRYPTO TRIES TO RECOVER | MARKET OPEN
ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS, AMD EARNINGS, CRYPTO TRIES TO RECOVER | MARKET OPEN
185 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 37 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider buying Grab (GRAB) shares, as the company just reported its first-ever operating profit and received price target upgrades to the $7-$8 range. The recent 21% drop in Axon (AXON) stock may present a buying opportunity, with one analyst buying the dip at $564 on what appears to be a temporary setback. Lemonade (LMND) is a high-growth opportunity worth investigating after it "crushed" earnings and showed a clear path to profitability. For a higher-risk play on the AI theme, data center stock IREN has received price target upgrades as high as $140. Be aware that despite stellar fundamentals, Palantir (PLTR) may trade sideways in a $150 to $200 range as it grows into its valuation.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The transcript mentions significant volatility, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 during an overnight "bloodbath" before rebounding to above $102,800.
  • This volatility was part of a broader crypto market event where $250 billion was liquidated.
  • The host suggests that a strengthening US Dollar could be contributing to volatility in risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The crypto market experienced a significant, rapid sell-off followed by a partial recovery. This highlights the inherent volatility of the asset class.
  • Investors who "slept early" missed the worst of the carnage and woke up to a partial recovery, illustrating that panic selling during sharp, unexplained drops can lead to losses.
  • The host links the recovery to the market gaining clarity after election results, suggesting that macroeconomic and political events are significant drivers of crypto price action.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • During the overnight market dip, Ethereum came very close to falling below $3,000 but recovered to $3,350.
  • The host mentions an unconfirmed report based on blockchain analysis suggesting that prominent investor Tom Lee may have purchased $300 million worth of Ethereum during the dip.

Takeaways

  • Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum showed extreme volatility but found support and recovered a significant portion of its losses.
  • The mention of a large, well-known investor potentially "buying the dip" can be seen as a bullish signal, suggesting that smart money may view these sharp drops as buying opportunities.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The company "crushed" its earnings report, with one guest calling it one of the most "incredible" and "exceptional" quarters they have ever seen, rivaling NVIDIA's past performance.
  • Despite the strong earnings, the stock was down, trading around $184 - $189 after being at $210. It had dipped to $181 overnight.
  • The host emphasizes that the stock is still up massively for the year (from $60 in January) and trades at a very high valuation (around 100 times sales).
  • A guest on the show suggested that PLTR may have hit a "short-term top" and could trade sideways in a $150 to $200 range as it grows into its valuation.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Fundamental View: The underlying business performance is exceptionally strong, with accelerating growth and strong margins. The host believes the "S-curve" of growth has many years of runway left.
  • Bearish/Neutral Price Action View: The stock's high valuation may be pricing in much of the future growth. Investors should not be surprised by price drops or consolidation, even after stellar earnings. The host has "zero sympathy" for those complaining about the price action given the massive gains and high premium.
  • For long-term investors, the focus should be on the fundamental execution, which was described as phenomenal. Short-term price movements are less important than the company's ability to continue executing.

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

  • The host believes AMD "crushed it" on earnings, with revenue up 36% and a beat on EPS. Their forward guidance was also stronger than expected.
  • Despite the good report, the stock was down about 2%. The host attributes this to the massive run-up the stock already had, moving from $150 to $250 after the OpenAI partnership was announced a month prior.
  • Amazon filed a 13F showing it sold all of its AMD shares.

Takeaways

  • This is a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. The stock's big move happened when the OpenAI partnership was announced. The strong earnings report was likely already priced in.
  • Investors who already hold AMD shouldn't be too concerned with the flat price action, as the "real Super Bowl happened a month ago." The fundamental business appears strong.
  • The fact that a major company like Amazon took profits could be a signal for some investors, but the host's overall tone remains positive on the company's performance.

Lemonade (LMND)

  • The company "absolutely crushed" its earnings, with the stock up 14-23% in response.
  • Key metrics were very strong:
    • Beat EPS estimates by 27%.
    • Beat revenue estimates by 5%.
    • Revenue grew 42% year-over-year.
    • Customers grew 24%.
    • Gross loss ratio (a key insurance metric) improved, declining by 11%.
  • The company is on a path to profitability and is still only a $5 billion market cap company.

Takeaways

  • Lemonade demonstrated strong execution, growing its customer base and revenue while improving its core profitability metric (gross loss ratio) and controlling operating expenses.
  • The market rewarded the strong "double beat" (beating on both revenue and earnings) with a significant stock price increase.
  • For a relatively small company, showing a clear path to profitability while maintaining high growth is a very bullish signal. The host suggests it may be "worth looking into a lot more."

Grab (GRAB)

  • The host is very bullish on the earnings report, noting he bought more shares.
  • Multiple investment firms raised their price targets, including Evercore ($8), Jefferies ($7), and Mizuho ($7).
  • The most important fundamental development was that Grab produced positive operating income for the first time in three years.
  • Despite the good news, the stock was red. The host is not concerned, believing the price will eventually catch up to the fundamental improvement.

Takeaways

  • The achievement of operating profitability is a major milestone and a significant de-risking event for the company. The host believes this signals a new, more profitable trajectory for the business.
  • The stock price not reacting positively to good news can be frustrating, but for long-term investors, it can present a buying opportunity if they believe in the fundamental story.
  • The host's advice is clear: if you are obsessed with short-term price action and can't handle a stock being down after good news, you should probably sell. If you are a long-term investor focused on fundamentals, this quarter was very strong.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • The stock recovered from a dip below $29 to trade around $29.81.
  • A key point of comparison was made with Upstart (UPST). The host noted that SoFi originated more loans than Upstart in the last quarter, effectively beating Upstart at its own game.
  • The host believes you get "so much more with SoFi" compared to Upstart.

Takeaways

  • SoFi is demonstrating strength in its lending business, a core component of its competitor Upstart's model.
  • The debate between SoFi and Robinhood (HOOD) was mentioned, with the host acknowledging SoFi's strong performance ($7 to $30) but noting Robinhood's has been stronger.
  • For investors looking at the fintech space, SoFi's ability to execute in lending and its diversified business model are presented as bullish points.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock saw volatility, dipping to $190 overnight before recovering.
  • NVIDIA is presented as the linchpin of the entire AI and data center investment theme. The host states, "NVIDIA has to keep working for those plays to work."
  • If you are invested in data center companies like IREN or Nebius, you have to be psychologically bullish on NVIDIA, even if you don't own the stock.
  • A potential risk mentioned was a headline that the Chinese government is forcing its domestic companies to use Chinese-made chips. However, the host questions the impact since the US is already restricting chip sales to China.

Takeaways

  • NVIDIA is the foundational company for the entire AI hardware boom. Its performance is a barometer for the health of the entire sector.
  • Any structural problem or significant downturn in NVIDIA would likely cause a ripple effect, negatively impacting other AI-related stocks, especially in the data center space.
  • Investors in the AI theme should monitor NVIDIA's performance and earnings closely as a key indicator for the sector.

Other Stocks & Themes

  • Unity (U): "Crushed it" on earnings with an 18% beat on EPS and a 4% beat on revenue. The stock was up significantly, reinforcing the theme that the market is rewarding strong "double beats."
  • Axon (AXON): The stock "got really wrecked," falling 21% after missing EPS estimates by 20%. The host believes this was due to an overstretched valuation and that the dip might be a buying opportunity, as it seems to be a one-off bad quarter for a company that institutions love. Another host, Tanner, bought the dip at $564.
  • Rivian (RIVN): Stock was up nicely (7-14%) after earnings. While still not profitable on a GAAP basis, they achieved gross profitability and confirmed production plans were on track, which the market liked.
  • Data Center & AI Infrastructure Stocks (IREN, Nebius, CoreWeave): These stocks were mentioned as part of the broader AI buildout. IREN received price target upgrades as high as $140 following its deal with Microsoft. These are seen as high-beta plays on the success of NVIDIA and the AI revolution.
  • Crypto Miners (Cypher, Clean Spark, etc.): These stocks showed significant volatility, with some like Cypher and Iren making big moves (+10-12%) during the session. These are highly correlated to the price of Bitcoin and overall crypto market sentiment.
  • Meta (META): The host sees it as a potential "layup" for 2026, noting its cheap valuation (20 times earnings) for a company doing $200 billion in revenue. The main investment question is whether its massive capital expenditure on AI will generate a good return.
  • Robinhood (HOOD): Earnings are today and expectations are high. The host believes they will "crush it," but the stock is already at all-time highs, so the bar is high for a positive stock reaction. Prediction markets are seen as a potential major growth driver.
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Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting deepdives: https://amitsdeepdives.substack.com/ 00:00 - Intro 05:00 - Elections 10:00 - Labor Market 33:30 - Evercore 44:00 - Market Open 1:14:00 - Steve 1:18:50 - ISM
About Amit Kukreja
Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!