Inside the Private Stock Market Boom: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI & the Rise of Secondaries
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI & the Rise of Secondaries
Podcast39 min 38 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors should prioritize gaining exposure to SpaceX through secondary platforms like Forge or retail-accessible "interval funds" to front-run the massive institutional demand expected at its eventual IPO. For high-growth AI leaders like Anthropic and OpenAI, avoid high-fee, unauthorized SPVs and instead use a disciplined "staggered entry" strategy to manage current peak valuations. Revolut offers a high-conviction play on fintech disruption as it scales its modern banking stack into the U.S. market with over $1 billion in revenue. In the hardware and logistics sector, Zipline is a top-tier private opportunity due to its proven unit economics and successful transition from medical delivery to the mass U.S. consumer market. To capitalize on the AI infrastructure "super cycle," look toward networking plays like Aria and DriveNets, or specialized robotics firms like NeuroRobotics that trade with less hype than Silicon Valley peers.

Detailed Analysis

SpaceX

SpaceX is highlighted as a gold standard for private companies, having remained private for 24 years while running orderly liquidity programs for employees and early investors. • The company is expected to have a massive impact on the market if/when it goes public, with predictions of 14+ levered ETFs launching on its IPO day. • Gavin Baker noted that the company’s success in the private market is due to its "orderly process" for secondary sales, allowing employees to gain liquidity without an IPO.

Takeaways

Institutional Demand: There is massive "dry powder" waiting for a SpaceX IPO. When it eventually lists, long-only mutual funds (like Fidelity or Wellington) that are currently capped by regulatory limits on private holdings will likely flood the stock with capital. • Secondary Access: Investors can currently seek access to SpaceX through secondary platforms like Forge or through "interval funds" (e.g., via Robinhood or Naval Ravikant’s USVC) which allow for smaller minimum investments (as low as $500).


Anthropic / OpenAI

• These AI "titans" are seeing massive growth, with the private market AI basket growing an average of 300%. • There is a trend of these companies pushing back against "gray market" SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) and asking to dissolve them to maintain control over their cap tables. • Brad Gerstner and Gavin Baker view these as "real businesses" with massive revenue growth, distinguishing them from the speculative "dot-com" bubble of 1999.

Takeaways

Avoid "YOLO" SPVs: Investors are cautioned against entering high-fee (10% load, double carry) SPVs that lack company permission. • Valuation Warning: While these are "extraordinary" businesses, speakers suggest the market is currently "bouncing along the top." Investors should "size" their entries rather than putting all capital in at once.


Revolut

• Mentioned by Chamath Palihapitiya as a compelling investment opportunity he is currently exploring in the secondary market. • It is described as a "next-generation" neobank with a modern tech stack that is successfully unbundling traditional banks. • Key Stats: Tens of millions of customers, 14 lines of business, and approximately $1 billion in revenue.

Takeaways

FinTech Disruption: Revolut represents a play on the "modernization of regulated markets." Its expansion into the U.S. from Europe is a key growth catalyst to watch.


Zipline

• A drone delivery company that has successfully scaled by delivering medical supplies in Africa and is now entering the U.S. market. • Jason Calacanis and Gavin Baker are both investors, noting its ability to reduce delivery costs from $15 to potentially $2.

Takeaways

Proven Unit Economics: Unlike many "moonshot" hardware companies, Zipline has seven years of flight data and has significantly reduced maternal mortality rates, proving its utility before hitting the mass U.S. consumer market.


Secondary Markets & Private Equity Themes

The "Third Way" of Exiting: Secondary markets are now competing with IPOs and acquisitions as a primary way for investors and employees to get paid. • Premium Pricing: Secondaries used to trade at a 20% discount (80 cents on the dollar); as of Q1 2025, they are trading at a 106% premium. • Democratization: The Forge/Schwab partnership aims to open private equity access to 46 million retail investors.

Takeaways

Liquidity for Retail: The "accredited investor" barrier is beginning to thin. New "interval funds" and "sophisticated investor tests" from the SEC may soon allow non-millionaires to own pieces of "quasi-public" companies like Databricks or Anduril. • Risk of "Exit Liquidity": Brad Gerstner warned that retail investors should be careful not to become "exit liquidity" for VCs selling at the top. He recommends a disciplined approach: "If I had 100, I might put 30 to work today."


Other Notable Mentions

Anduril: Cited as a major player in the secondary market alongside SpaceX and Anthropic. • Sierra (Brett Taylor’s company): An "agent-native" AI company building the next generation of Salesforce-like services. • Aria & DriveNets: Networking infrastructure plays. Gavin Baker believes a "super cycle" in data center networking is coming to support AI chips. • NeuroRobotics: A German-based AI logistics robotics company with $100M in revenue, cited as a "down-market" opportunity with less hype than Silicon Valley firms. • Vast: A company building private space stations, mentioned as a play on the decreasing cost of space launch.

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Episode Description
(0:00) Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker, and Kelly Rodriques join the Besties! (0:47) Secondary Markets are Booming & Competing with IPOs (3:10) Why Companies are Staying Private So Long? (9:22) SPVs, the Forge-Schwab Deal, Democratizing Private Market Access (13:28) Secondary Markets as Exit Liquidity for VCs (27:00) The Private Market Bubble? (32:03) Hottest Secondary Companies Right Now Follow Brad: https://x.com/altcap Follow Gavin: https://x.com/GavinSBaker Follow Kelly: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelly-rodriques-9b49418 Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg
About All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

By All-In Podcast, LLC

Industry veterans, degenerate gamblers & besties Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks & David Friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social & poker.