Why We’ve Bottomed, Oil Hits $100 & The Stablecoin Trade
Why We’ve Bottomed, Oil Hits $100 & The Stablecoin Trade
53 days ago1000xBlockworks
Podcast45 min 53 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) on dips below $70,000, targeting a rally toward $85,000 - $90,000 by year-end, while maintaining a strict stop-loss if prices fall back under $69,000. Consider Hyperliquid (HYPE) as a high-conviction growth play, with analysts projecting a move from current levels near $40 toward a target of $150 - $200. For exposure to the stablecoin and fintech sectors, prioritize Sky (SKY) and Coinbase (COIN) over high-valuation plays like Circle or commoditized platforms like Curve (CRV). Robinhood (HOOD) offers a strong recovery trade with a price target of $110 - $120 as retail crypto trading activity accelerates. Avoid speculative altcoins like Near Protocol (NEAR) and Bittensor (TAO), instead rotating capital into U.S. Software (IGV) and Big Tech as geopolitical fears subside.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speakers believe Bitcoin has officially bottomed after exhausting sellers over a four-week period. • Price Action: Bitcoin recently broke out of a range, moving from $66k to $74k. • Sentiment: Extremely bullish; the "wall of worry" (geopolitical tensions and oil prices) is being overcome by the market. • Strategy: Below $70k is considered a strong accumulation zone. • Risk Management: A drop back below $69k would be viewed as a "failed breakout," signaling a potential move to new lows and a reason to exit positions.

Takeaways

Target: The speakers anticipate a rally toward $85k - $90k in the second half of the year. • Action: Look to buy dips, as the narrative suggests sellers are exhausted and institutional "overhang" is dissipating.


Hyperliquid (HYPE/Platform)

• Described as a "leading indicator" for the broader market and a potential "Binance killer." • Unique Value Proposition: It allows retail investors to trade assets like Oil on weekends when traditional markets (CME/ICE) are closed, providing an advantage over hedge funds like Citadel or Millennium that face regulatory hurdles. • Valuation: Currently trading around $40 (20% off highs); speakers believe it could easily be a $150 - $200 asset.

Takeaways

Institutional Interest: Expect massive inflows once the platform is "whitelisted" for large firms. • Economic Model: Highlighted as a rare "real business" in crypto with significant revenue and token buybacks.


Ethereum (ETH)

• Sentiment is turning positive due to the "Stablecoin Trade." • ETH/BTC Pair: Showing strength as investors realize Ethereum is the primary layer for stablecoin adoption. • Price Action: Described as looking "phenomenal" following the Bitcoin breakout.

Takeaways

Narrative: Ethereum is viewed as a bet on the growth of the decentralized financial system and stablecoin rails.


Stablecoin Sector & Sky (Formerly MakerDAO)

Sky (SKY/MKR): Identified as a "picks and shovels" play for stablecoins. • Fundamentals: Boasts $21 billion in Total Value Locked (TVL) and significant daily buybacks (approx. $200k). • Circle (USDC): While the speakers acknowledge Circle as a pure play on stablecoin growth, they find its valuation (PE ratio over 100) too high relative to current revenue.

Takeaways

Long-term Outlook: If stablecoins grow to a $5 trillion market, assets like Sky and Coinbase (COIN) are expected to be massive beneficiaries. • Avoid: Curve (CRV) is viewed as "cooked" because stablecoin swapping has become commoditized and less profitable.


Crypto Equities & FinTech

Robinhood (HOOD): Currently trading around $77; speakers suggest it could return to $110 - $120 as crypto trading activity (the "flurry") returns. • Coinbase (COIN): Viewed as a great bet due to diversified revenue streams and its role in the stablecoin ecosystem. • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Mentioned as a "spicy" laggard trade. It acts as a proxy for Mike Novogratz’s portfolio and has a potential "AI Data Center" narrative via its Helios facility.

Takeaways

Sector Rotation: As "AI fears" and "Iran fears" subside, capital is expected to flow back into high-growth American tech and crypto-linked equities.


Investment Themes & Sector Insights

The "Wall of Worry" and Geopolitics

• The market has largely priced in the conflict with Iran. The speakers argue that if Oil hits $120, global powers will be forced to intervene to keep trade routes open, making extreme oil spikes temporary. • Action: Buy "good assets" (Big Tech, BTC, ETH) on dips caused by geopolitical headlines.

Altcoin Oversupply

Bearish Sentiment on General Alts: The ease of creating new tokens (e.g., via Pump.fun) has led to infinite supply, which "crowds out" merit-based projects. • Specific Mentions: * Near Protocol (NEAR): Viewed skeptically; described as a "money vacuum" despite its AI narrative. * Bittensor (TAO): Criticized as a "perfect shitcoin" with hype-driven rallies and poor liquidity.

The Return to "American Hegemony"

• A prediction was made for a massive flow of assets back into the U.S. by Q2 2026. • Bearish on: Gold, Silver, and Emerging Markets. • Bullish on: U.S. Software (IGV index), Google, and Large-cap Tech.

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Episode Description
This week, we discuss why crypto has finally bottomed. We also deep dive into how to position in the next 3-6 months, why the oil price spike remains a fade, how to get long the stablecoin trade, the Galaxy thesis & more. Enjoy! -- Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes! Spotify: https://bit.ly/4676Sob Apple: https://bit.ly/4etlBMd -- Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod. Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code 1000X200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Time to Be Bullish? (15:12) Crypto’s Token Supply Problem (20:35) How to Get Long Stablecoins (26:03) The Best Trades Over 3–6 Months (39:39) The Galaxy Thesis -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
About 1000x
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By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.