What To Own This Cycle?
What To Own This Cycle?
278 days ago1000xBlockworks
Podcast50 min 55 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The recent dip in Bitcoin (BTC) is viewed as a buying opportunity for long-term holders, with analysis suggesting it would be a mistake to sell before a potential move to the $140k - $180k range. As a primary catch-up trade, Ethereum (ETH) is showing significant strength and is considered a high-conviction bet to outperform Bitcoin in the near term. For a higher-risk play, Galaxy Digital (GLXY.TO) is being watched as a potential meme stock that could rally towards $40 on a positive earnings catalyst. Litecoin (LTC) is also considered bullish due to its simple "silver to Bitcoin's gold" narrative, which is attractive to institutional buyers. Conversely, some traders are actively betting against Coinbase (COIN) with puts, believing its recent price surge is an unsustainable, retail-driven bubble.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The hosts view the recent price drop from the $118k level as a healthy market event, not a reason for long-term concern. They describe it as a "flush" of excessive leverage and "amateur hour" traders, which resets the market for a healthier move up.
  • The long-term bullish outlook remains strong. One host mentioned that it would be a "shame to freak out and sell" only to see the price pump to $140k - $180k.
  • The large outflows from Bitcoin ETFs (around $1 billion) are no longer seen as a reliable bearish signal. The hosts believe this capital is now mostly from active traders, not long-term investors leaving the market.
  • The overall macro environment, including expected rate cuts and a pro-crypto stance in Washington, is seen as very bullish for Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Strongly Bullish on a long-term basis.
  • Actionable Insight: The recent dip is considered a buying opportunity, not a signal to sell. Investors with a long-term conviction in Bitcoin should consider holding through this volatility, as the hosts believe the biggest price moves are yet to come. The opportunity cost of selling now and missing the next major leg up is considered very high.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • ETH is described as a "secondary catch-up trade" to Bitcoin that is showing significant strength. It bounced back from the recent market dip faster than Bitcoin.
  • A major bullish driver is the emergence of "treasury companies" that are structurally buying large amounts of ETH, creating sustained demand.
  • The ETH/BTC price chart is viewed as "technically solid," suggesting ETH may outperform Bitcoin in the short to medium term, especially if Bitcoin trades sideways.
  • One host, who was previously bearish on ETH, was convinced to change his view during the podcast and bought ETH on leverage, seeing it as a compelling trade.
  • It is considered the second most institutional asset after Bitcoin, making it a primary target for new institutional capital entering the space.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish for a short-to-medium term trade.
  • Actionable Insight: Investors looking for a higher-risk, higher-reward trade than Bitcoin might consider ETH. The combination of institutional ETF flows, buying from treasury companies, and strong technical momentum suggests it could outperform. This is viewed as a trade to capitalize on current market dynamics rather than a "five or ten bagger" long-term hold.

Galaxy Digital (GLXY.TO)

  • Galaxy is presented as a publicly traded crypto stock that is behaving like a meme stock.
  • It has several key ingredients for a meme-driven rally:
    • A great, meme-able name ("send it to the galaxy").
    • A charismatic, well-known leader in Mike Novogratz.
    • A powerful narrative combining crypto and AI.
    • A fundamental case being made by some analysts, which adds a layer of legitimacy (similar to Roaring Kitty's case for GameStop).
  • The hosts believe the stock could be sent 10x higher by the "WallStreetBets Reddit crowd" for no fundamental reason. A price target of $40 (up from ~$29) is mentioned if upcoming earnings are good.
  • Risk: Institutional coverage from firms like Jeffries and Goldman Sachs could be a double-edged sword. A negative rating could hurt the price.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish, with a focus on its meme potential.
  • Actionable Insight: Galaxy is a high-risk, high-volatility play on market hype and narrative. Its price may be disconnected from company fundamentals. Investors should watch for upcoming earnings reports as a potential catalyst. This is a speculative bet on retail investor enthusiasm.

Ripple (XRP)

  • XRP is discussed as a highly controversial but potentially lucrative trade. It's considered the third most institutional asset.
  • Bear Case: One host calls the company a "total scam," arguing the XRP token has no real-world utility as a bridge currency.
  • Bull Case: The counterargument is that Ripple has used its massive treasury (from selling XRP) to acquire legitimate businesses (like brokerage Hidden Road) and is trying to become a legitimate financial player.
  • The single biggest catalyst for XRP would be an IPO of Ripple Labs. The hosts believe if the company goes public, the XRP token is "going to the freaking moon" due to the hype.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: A mix of deep skepticism about the fundamentals and bullishness on the trading opportunity.
  • Actionable Insight: Investing in XRP is a speculative trade on a future event: the Ripple Labs IPO. The underlying value of the token is questionable, but the hype from a public listing could cause a massive price surge. This is a bet on market psychology, not technology.

Coinbase (COIN)

  • The stock's recent wild price swings (up 72% in a month, then down 30%) are attributed purely to speculative retail traders "aping in" and out, not to the company's business performance.
  • One of the hosts revealed they are actively betting against the stock by owning puts (options that profit if the price goes down), suggesting they believe the price is overvalued in the short term.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bearish in the short term.
  • Actionable Insight: Investors should be cautious with Coinbase stock due to its extreme volatility, which is driven by market sentiment rather than fundamentals. The stock is prone to sharp corrections.

Toncoin (TON)

  • One host took a small, speculative "flyer" bet on TON.
  • The investment thesis is simple: given its deep integration with the massive Telegram messaging app, it seems "unfathomable" that a treasury company for TON will not be created at some point.
  • It is viewed as a crypto asset that would be very easy to pitch and sell to public market institutions.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Speculatively Bullish.
  • Actionable Insight: TON is a high-risk, idea-driven investment. The bet is on a future catalyst (the creation of a treasury vehicle) that would unlock institutional demand. This is a play on the power of Telegram's distribution network.

Litecoin (LTC)

  • Litecoin is highlighted for its recent strong performance, bouncing 20% off recent lows.
  • The bullish thesis is that LTC benefits from the "back to basics" institutional trend. It's easy for traditional finance professionals to understand through the simple analogy of being the "silver to Bitcoin's gold."
  • This simple narrative makes it a prime candidate to be included in a future institutional treasury vehicle.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish due to strong momentum and a simple narrative.
  • Actionable Insight: Litecoin's recent strength could continue if the theme of institutions buying simple, well-known crypto assets persists. It's a less complex bet than many other altcoins, relying on its brand recognition and history.
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Episode Description
Gm! This week we discuss what to own this cycle. We deep dive into Friday's sell off, is it time to own ETH, the Galaxy meme frenzy, how to trade the next leg of the cycle & more. Enjoy! -- Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes! Spotify: https://bit.ly/4676Sob Apple: https://bit.ly/4etlBMd -- Follow Avi:  https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah:  https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x:  https://x.com/1000xPod  Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh -- Kraken OTC offers discreet, 24/7 execution for large crypto orders. Built for HNWIs and institutions trading $50K+, you get access to deep liquidity, chat-based support and flexible settlement. Learn more: kraken.com/blockworks Disclaimer: Availability of products may vary by jurisdiction. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers through Payward Interactive, Inc. View legal disclosures at https://kraken.com/legal/disclosures. -- Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and real yield, by redirecting chain revenue back to active DeFi users. The 1 billion KAT campaign is live. Bridge and deposit directly into vaults in one simple click and start earning immediately on your ETH, BTC, USDC, and more. Go to app.katana.network to check it out. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:23) Will H2 Be Bullish? (10:02) Ads (Kraken OTC, Katana) (11:08) The ETF Impact On Bitcoin (19:31) Crypto Exchanges (28:18) Ads (Kraken OTC, Katana) (29:24) What To Own This Cycle? (47:00) Macro Update -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed
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By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.