What's The Trade For 2026?
What's The Trade For 2026?
130 days ago1000xBlockworks
Podcast56 min 57 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

A high-conviction, short-term trade is to be bullish on Bitcoin (BTC), with a price target of $100,000 by the end of January; one aggressive strategy mentioned was buying IBIT $55 calls. For a longer-term investment, consider that a 50/50 basket of gold and silver is predicted with high probability to outperform the S&P 500 by 2026. Privacy coins like Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC) are seen as a major opportunity for 2026, driven by a strong narrative and real-world demand. Conversely, investors should be extremely cautious with older altcoins and meme coins, as they are expected to continue underperforming and not see a major resurgence. Finally, exposure to "geopolitical assets" is another key theme, with the REMX ETF highlighted as a way to invest in the rare earth minerals sector.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • A very bullish, short-term prediction was made for Bitcoin, suggesting it has been neglected while assets like gold have rallied.
  • The speaker believes the recent sideways-to-down price action was due to end-of-year tax selling and low holiday liquidity.
  • A key support level mentioned is $85,000. The fact that Bitcoin has not held below this level, even with selling pressure and low buying volume, is seen as a sign that "sellers have run out of ammo."
  • The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at a level described as "buy with both hands," indicating extreme fear which is often a contrarian buy signal.
  • Volatility (vol) is currently very low at around 40%, which makes buying options contracts cheaper than usual. A 40% vol implies a daily move of about 2%, and the speaker believes a larger move is likely.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Thesis: The hosts are very bullish on Bitcoin in the immediate short-term (January). They expect a fast and powerful move upwards as liquidity returns to the market and buying pressure resumes.
  • Price Target: A price of $100,000 was predicted by the end of January.
  • Specific Trade: One host purchased IBIT $55 calls expiring January 30th. This is a proxy for a Bitcoin options trade, roughly equivalent to a $97,000 strike price call on Bitcoin. This is a high-risk, high-reward trade that profits if Bitcoin's price rises significantly and quickly.
  • Risk Factor: A sustained break below the $85,000 level would invalidate the bullish thesis and could lead to further panic selling.

Gold & Silver

  • One host is very bullish on precious metals, arguing that the world is in a long-term (15-year) cycle for gold, driven by several factors:
    • Geopolitical Fracturing: A move to a "multipolar world" is causing sovereign nations, particularly BRICS countries like China, to stockpile gold as they diversify away from the US dollar.
    • Inflation: The baseline rate of inflation is expected to remain higher than the post-financial crisis era, making gold an attractive hedge.
    • Momentum: Retail investors are now buying gold because it is performing well, which can create a reflexive, self-reinforcing rally.
  • A more cautious host believes the metals rally may be in its late stages (the "eighth or ninth inning"), but acknowledges that this is often when the most dramatic price increases occur.
  • Silver is seen as a more retail-driven and "squeezy" asset due to its smaller market cap compared to gold.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Thesis: Gold and silver are positioned to perform well due to major geopolitical and macroeconomic trends. The rally may have significant room to run, even if it's in its later stages.
  • Long-Term Bet: A bet was proposed that a 50/50 basket of gold and silver will outperform the S&P 500 in 2026, with one host assigning an 80% probability to this outcome.
  • Investment Strategy: This suggests that allocating a portion of a portfolio to precious metals could be a wise move for investors who believe in the themes of persistent inflation and geopolitical instability.

Commodities & Rare Earth Minerals (REMX)

  • There is a general bullish sentiment on "geopolitical assets," which include commodities that are critical for industrial and strategic purposes.
  • The discussion highlighted that Palladium and Copper/Copper miners are performing very well.
  • One host revealed a significant personal investment in REMX, an ETF that provides exposure to rare earth and strategic minerals.

Takeaways

  • Investment Theme: Investing in commodities and materials that are subject to geopolitical tensions could be a profitable theme.
  • Actionable Idea: For investors looking to gain exposure to this theme, the REMX ETF was mentioned as a direct way to invest in rare earth minerals.

Altcoins & Meme Coins

  • The hosts expressed a very bearish outlook for most existing altcoins and meme coins from previous cycles.
  • The prediction is that the "altcoin bear market continues" in 2026 and there will be no major resurgence of meme coins.
  • The reasoning is that investors are always chasing the "new, new thing" and have little interest in "old shit." The life cycle of meme coins has shrunk from weeks to mere hours.
  • An exception noted was White Whale, a new "deep cut" meme coin that saw a massive run, indicating that risk appetite ("the gamblers") still exists within the crypto ecosystem for new projects.

Takeaways

  • Bearish Thesis: Avoid holding altcoins and meme coins from previous cycles (Polkadot, Whiff, Pepe, WorldCoin were mentioned as examples), as they are likely to underperform.
  • Contrarian Trade Idea: A proposed trade is to short a basket of these older, "vaporware" altcoins versus a long position in Bitcoin and privacy coins (see below). The thesis is that insiders and VCs will continue to sell their holdings, creating sustained downward pressure.

Privacy Coins (Monero - XMR, Zcash - ZEC)

  • A very bullish case was made for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.
  • The core thesis is that these coins have a strong, albeit illicit, use case: laundering stolen funds. The podcast noted $2.7 billion was stolen in crypto hacks in 2025, and this money often needs to be "washed" through privacy coins.
  • A secondary driver is the potential for individuals to use these coins to hide assets from governments, especially with new wealth taxes being considered in places like California.
  • The combination of a real use case and a compelling narrative is seen as a "perfect coalescing point for privacy coins" in 2026.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Thesis: Privacy coins are undervalued and have a powerful, demand-driven narrative that could lead to significant price appreciation.
  • Kingmaker Trade Idea: A complex trade was suggested: Go long a basket of Monero (XMR), Zcash (ZEC), and Bitcoin (BTC) while simultaneously shorting a basket of "old" altcoins (like Polkadot, Pepe, etc.). This trade aims to profit from both the rise of privacy coins and the fall of outdated projects.

NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens)

  • The general sentiment towards the NFT market is extremely bearish, with one host calling the 2021 boom a "fad."
  • The belief is that the cultural moment for NFTs has passed. The initial hype was tied to a COVID-era belief that life would move permanently into the metaverse, a trend that has since reversed.
  • A specific prediction was made that the floor price of CryptoPunks will fall below 8 ETH.
  • An exception was made for high-quality generative art like Fidenzas and Ringers, which are appreciated for their aesthetic value.

Takeaways

  • Bearish Thesis: The vast majority of NFTs, especially profile picture (PFP) collections like CryptoPunks and Bored Apes, are expected to continue losing value. They are viewed as illiquid collectibles with a shrinking audience.
  • Niche Opportunity: There may be value in the physical art associated with NFTs. An arbitrage opportunity was mentioned in buying a Fidenza NFT, minting the one-time-only signed physical print from the artist, and then selling the NFT, potentially acquiring the physical art for a low cost.
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Episode Description
Gm! This week, we dig into our 2026 predictions. We debate whether metals are late-cycle or just getting started and outline their highest-conviction calls for 2026, including Bitcoin price action in January, altcoin trends, and where speculation may (or may not) return. Enjoy! – Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes! Spotify: https://bit.ly/4676Sob  Apple: https://bit.ly/4etlBMd  – Follow Avi:  https://x.com/AviFelman  Follow Jonah:  https://x.com/jvb_xyz  Follow 1000x:  https://x.com/1000xPod   Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh – Kraken offers crypto margin trading to qualified U.S. clients through Kraken Pro. Access up to 10x leverage on supported pairs. Built-in risk tools, unified account experience, and deep liquidity from a Platform trusted for over 14 years.  Learn more: https://www.kraken.com/en-ca/features/margin-trading   Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers (excluding NY and ME) through Payward Interactive, Inc. View legal disclosures at kraken.com/legal/disclosures. Availability of margin trading services is subject to certain limitations and eligibility criteria. Trading using margin involves an element of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. Read Kraken’s Margin Disclosure Statement to learn more. – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:21) Is The Metals Trade Over? (11:54) Ads (Kraken OTC) (18:35) Bitcoin Ripping In January (26:39) Ads (Kraken OTC) (27:33) Crypto Finally Turning Around (33:04) 2026 Crypto Predictions (39:40) Roasting NFTs (44:29) Are Trends Accelerating? (48:47) Betting Strategies & Risks (55:10) Final Thoughts – Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed
About 1000x
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By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.