Still Time To Be Bullish?
Still Time To Be Bullish?
241 days ago1000xBlockworks
Podcast52 min 33 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

A potential regulatory shift allowing US investors access to Binance could be a major catalyst for BNB, with a potential price target of over $1000. Consider Galaxy Digital (GLXY.TO) as an undervalued play on the AI narrative, as its data center business could cause the stock to double. For a high-risk investment in the on-chain gambling trend, Pump.fun (PUMP) is generating significant revenue and conducting token buybacks, providing a fundamental case for growth. Anticipated institutional buying pressure from new digital asset treasuries presents a medium-term bullish catalyst for Solana (SOL). As a broader play on the growth of retail speculation, consider Robinhood (HOOD), whose new social features could amplify trading behavior on the platform.

Detailed Analysis

General Market Outlook

  • The current crypto cycle is described as a "choppy grind higher" rather than a "face-ripping 10Xer" like previous cycles.
  • Assets are moving slower, with gains of 5% to 15% being more common than the explosive 100%+ gains seen in 2021.
  • The hosts believe this is a sign of a maturing asset class and that the cycle could be a longer, six or seven-year upward grind as institutional adoption grows.
  • They are bullish and do not believe the cycle top is in, citing that key metrics (like the RVZ score being only at 2) do not indicate a top. They believe people are incorrectly pattern-matching to 2021 charts without considering the different underlying fundamentals.

Takeaways

  • Patience is key: This is not a market for instant gratification. Investors should build conviction in a thesis and be prepared to hold positions for weeks or months for them to play out.
  • Focus on fundamentals: The hosts suggest a "holy trinity" framework for evaluating assets: Value (can it 2-3x?), Momentum (is it trending up?), and Fundamentals (is there real revenue/usage?).
  • Avoid chasing "flash in the pan" narratives: This is a market where you can invest in projects with real business models rather than just trading short-term hype.

Solana (SOL)

  • A host mentioned taking a long (bullish) position on Solana around $195.
  • The bullish thesis is based on news about upcoming digital asset treasuries that are raising cash specifically to buy SOL on the open market.
  • The host noted that even with this bullish news, the trade took almost two weeks to play out for a 15% gain, reinforcing the theme of patience.

Takeaways

  • The sentiment is bullish on Solana due to anticipated institutional buying pressure.
  • This could be a medium-term catalyst for the price of SOL as these new treasuries deploy their capital.

Galaxy Digital (GLXY.TO)

  • The hosts are bullish on the stock, even after recent price volatility.
  • The core thesis is that the market is undervaluing Galaxy's AI data center, which is expected to provide a ton of value and lead to new contracts.
  • It is also viewed as a way to get exposure to the AI narrative, which the hosts believe is in a temporary "trough" and could heat up again.
  • One host mentioned that Galaxy could "double easily" if the AI narrative returns to being a hot topic.

Takeaways

  • Galaxy Digital is presented as a stock with significant upside potential, tied to both the crypto market and the AI sector.
  • Investors with a bullish view on AI's long-term growth might see this as an undervalued play. Note: This is a Canadian stock trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

  • Described as a "real business" and "Vegas on-chain" due to its significant revenue generation ($1.3 to $2.5 million per day) from users creating meme coins.
  • The platform is conducting substantial buybacks with its revenue, which is a strong bullish signal as it reduces the available supply of the token.
  • The hosts believe Pump.fun has a strong network effect, similar to Twitch for streaming, making it the go-to platform for launching meme coins.
  • The risk mentioned is that a new, better platform could emerge, but the hosts believe the founder is smart and will likely expand the platform's "games" beyond just meme coins (e.g., raffles).

Takeaways

  • Pump.fun is viewed as a way to invest directly in the meme coin and on-chain gambling trend.
  • The strong revenue and token buybacks provide a fundamental basis for a bullish investment thesis, despite the speculative nature of its use case.
  • This is a high-risk, high-reward play on the continuation of the on-chain gambling culture.

BNB (BNB)

  • A "slow burn" bullish case was made for BNB.
  • The primary catalyst is the potential for U.S. investors to gain access to Binance's perpetuals exchange (perp dexes).
  • The host argues that if the probability of this happening goes from 5% to 30%, the token should be 10-20% higher.
  • A price target of over $1000 was mentioned as a possibility "in short order" given this potential regulatory shift.

Takeaways

  • BNB is seen as having a significant, overlooked catalyst related to U.S. regulation.
  • Investors looking for a large-cap crypto with a specific, high-impact catalyst might consider BNB. The host confirmed they have an active position based on this thesis.

Ripple (XRP)

  • The discussion focused on Ripple's private equity, not the XRP token directly, but the implications are bullish for the entire ecosystem.
  • Ripple, the company, has been aggressively buying back its own stock from private investors at increasingly higher valuations (from $60 to a recent offer at $250).
  • This is interpreted as insiders being "ridiculously bullish" on the company's future.
  • The hosts speculate that these buybacks are a precursor to the company going public (IPO) soon.

Takeaways

  • An eventual Ripple IPO is seen as a major bullish catalyst for the price of XRP and the entire Ripple ecosystem.
  • While you can't easily buy the private stock, the actions of the company's insiders suggest strong confidence, which could be a positive signal for long-term XRP holders.

Tron (TRX)

  • Noted for having one of the "smoothest charts in crypto," showing a steady, non-volatile uptrend, which is highly unusual.
  • The hosts describe it as a "crime chain" that has a monopoly on sketchy, non-KYC stablecoin transfers.
  • A speculative trade thesis was proposed: As new stablecoin-focused chains (like Tempo and Plasma) launch to compete with Tron, founder Justin Sun will likely be forced to "pump the price pretty massively" to keep Tron relevant.

Takeaways

  • This is a highly speculative and unorthodox trade idea based on game theory.
  • The idea is to long TRX when its direct competitors go live, betting that the founder will manipulate the price upwards to defend his platform's market share.
  • The risk is that the chart looks "manipulated" and could see a 95% drawdown if the support is removed, especially in a bear market. This is not a long-term investment.

Collector Crypt (CARDS)

  • Presented as a "trench warrior win," a lesser-known project that has already seen a 10x return.
  • It's a marketplace for tokenizing and trading real-world collectibles like Pokemon cards, effectively creating a standardized, liquid market that was previously fragmented on platforms like eBay.
  • The hosts believe it is "still reasonably valued" because it can easily expand into other massive collectible markets like baseball cards, Marvel cards, etc.

Takeaways

  • CARDS is a play on the theme of tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs).
  • It represents an investment in building new, more efficient markets for existing asset classes.
  • Investors interested in the intersection of collectibles and crypto could explore this project, though it has already run up significantly.

Investment Theme: Gambling & On-Chain Casinos

  • The hosts are extremely bullish on the growth of "gambling culture" and believe investors need to find ways to get exposure to this trend.
  • Pump.fun is the primary example of a "pure play" on this.
  • Robinhood (HOOD) is also mentioned as an "amazing bet" on this theme, especially with its new social feed feature which could amplify speculative trading behavior.
  • Other names mentioned in this space include Shuffle and Rollbit.

Takeaways

  • Look for platforms and protocols that facilitate on-chain speculation and gambling.
  • This is a high-growth, high-risk sector. Investing in the "picks and shovels" (the platforms) like HOOD or PUMP can be a way to benefit from the overall trend without betting on a single meme coin.
  • The hosts believe the future of on-chain casinos will expand beyond meme coins to include things like raffles, lotteries, and other games that offer asymmetric returns.
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Episode Description
Gm! This week we discuss is it still time to be bullish? With everyone expecting one final ump, we deep dive into how to structure your portfolio, finding out-performers, is the A.I trade back, the rise of onchain gambling & more. Enjoy!--Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes!Spotify: https://bit.ly/4676SobApple: https://bit.ly/4etlBMd--Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelmanFollow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyzFollow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh--Kraken OTC offers discreet, 24/7 execution for large crypto orders. Built for HNWIs and institutions trading $50K+, you get access to deep liquidity, chat-based support and flexible settlement. Learn more: kraken.com/blockworksDisclaimer:Availability of products may vary by jurisdiction. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers through Payward Interactive, Inc. View legal disclosures at https://kraken.com/legal/disclosures.--Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and real yield, by redirecting chain revenue back to active DeFi users.The 1 billion KAT campaign is live. Bridge and deposit directly into vaults in one simple click and start earning immediately on your ETH, BTC, USDC, and more. Go to app.katana.network to check it out.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (2:43) What Trades Are Winning In This Environment (8:52) Value, Fundamentals & Momentum (11:41) Is Ripple About To Go Public? (14:39) Ads (Kraken OTC) (15:36) Tron & Stablecoins (20:32) Trading This Market (2021 vs Today) (27:52) Pump Fun: Vegas Onchain (39:32) Ads (Kraken OTC & Katana) (41:07) Is The A.I Trade Back? (43:26) Collector Crypt--Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed
About 1000x
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By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.