MARKET UPDATE: What The Blue Tsunami Means For The Markets
MARKET UPDATE: What The Blue Tsunami Means For The Markets
2 hours ago•1000x•Blockworks
Podcast1 hr
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider shorting Galaxy Digital (GLXY) if you believe its Texas Helios data-center project faces delays or power constraints; one host’s downside scenario was about $8, not a formal price target.
  • A host also favored shorting Trump Media (DJT) and Trump Coin (TRUMP) on political and reputational-risk grounds, but these are speculative trades without valuation targets.
  • For a longer-term investment, Bitcoin (BTC) was favored on a dollar-debasement thesis, with one host citing a highly speculative $10 million target over 10 years.
  • Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) could benefit if compute demand stays strong while data-center construction slows; this opportunity depends on both conditions holding.
Detailed Analysis

Oil

  • Oil fell 8% on the election news. One host regretted not shorting it beforehand, saying prediction-market odds could have signaled the outcome.
  • The hosts disagreed on what comes next:
    • One saw oil as a potential buy, arguing that conflict involving Iran and Israel could keep supply risks high and prices volatile.
    • The other favored a continued short if the Iran war winds down, which could ease inflation and support stocks.
  • Both acknowledged that oil’s outlook depends heavily on geopolitics; one host said that without geopolitical risk, oil would be worth about $50.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offers no clear consensus trade. Oil’s direction depends on whether conflict eases or flares up, so treat either a long or short position as a geopolitical bet rather than a settled view.
  • The 8% post-election drop shows how quickly political developments can move oil prices.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • One host cited a $10 million Bitcoin target over 10 years, based on the view that ongoing government policy will debase the dollar.
  • The hosts said Bitcoin may be less affected than other crypto assets by a change in political control because it is already established and does not depend as directly on new regulatory approvals.
  • They also noted that Bitcoin was up on the day despite concerns that Trump had made it a political focal point.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s Bitcoin thesis is long-term dollar debasement, not a specific near-term catalyst.
  • The hosts were more concerned about institutional adoption and regulatory uncertainty for crypto overall than about Bitcoin’s existing regulatory status.

Crypto Projects and Regulation

  • One host warned that crypto projects seeking new regulatory approvals or clarity could face a difficult environment, as lawmakers may prioritize other issues.
  • The other argued that Democrats are not uniformly opposed to crypto and may focus more on perceived conflicts of interest, circumvention of regulation, or enrichment than on banning the sector.
  • The hosts suggested the political shift could hurt crypto businesses that rely on regulatory clarity while potentially leading to a better ecosystem if problematic projects face scrutiny.

Takeaways

  • Be cautious about crypto businesses whose value depends on near-term regulatory approvals or political support.
  • The discussion distinguishes those businesses from Bitcoin, which the hosts viewed as less dependent on new approvals.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • One host said they liked the idea of being long Zcash alongside a short position in Trump coin.
  • The host also said that if a California wealth-tax measure had passed, Zcash might have risen to $2,000. The measure did not pass.

Takeaways

  • The Zcash comment was a proposed trade, but the transcript gives no further investment thesis or valuation analysis to support it.
  • The $2,000 figure was a hypothetical reaction to a political outcome, not a stated price target.

Trump Coin (TRUMP)

  • One host described shorting Trump coin as a strong trade, arguing that political backlash could weigh on assets associated with Trump.
  • At the time of the discussion, the host cited a market capitalization of about $365 million and fully diluted valuation of about $1.2 billion.

Takeaways

  • The short thesis is tied to political and reputational risk, particularly the view that Trump-associated assets could face scrutiny.
  • This was a high-conviction opinion from one host, not a consensus view or a price-target-based valuation.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT)

  • One host said short DJT could be a strong trade and argued the company was “going nowhere.”
  • The host cited a market capitalization of about $1.38 billion.

Takeaways

  • The bearish view rests on political exposure and doubts about the company’s prospects.
  • The transcript provides no business-performance analysis or valuation model, so the short thesis is primarily political.

Data Centers and Hyperscalers: Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT)

  • One host argued that slower data-center construction could benefit companies that already own data centers and compute capacity, specifically naming Amazon and Microsoft.
  • The reasoning was that if supply growth slows while demand continues to rise, the price of access to existing compute capacity could increase.
  • The hosts also said slower buildouts could ease concerns about hyperscalers financing expansion with more debt and compressing their valuations.

Takeaways

  • The potential opportunity is in established infrastructure owners if compute demand continues to grow while new supply is constrained.
  • This view depends on demand remaining strong and construction actually slowing; the hosts also noted that political and local responses to data centers remain uncertain.

Neoclouds and Galaxy Digital (GLXY)

  • One host recommended shorting neocloud companies whose valuations depend on planned data-center construction, especially those with exposure to Texas.
  • Galaxy Digital was singled out because its value proposition was described as heavily tied to the Helios data-center project in Texas. The host argued that delays or problems securing power could undermine the case for the stock.
  • One host said Galaxy could fall to about $8; another preferred simply shorting the stock and said the business could be worth less than book value if data-center expansion and crypto regulatory clarity both faltered.

Takeaways

  • The hosts’ bearish case is concentrated on companies with substantial dependence on unfinished data-center projects and regulatory support.
  • The $8 figure was a host’s scenario, not a formal target. The trade could be wrong if Helios proceeds or the regulatory outlook improves.

Chipmakers: Intel (INTC), Micron (MU), Nvidia (NVDA), SanDisk (SNDK), and SK Hynix

  • The hosts disagreed about chipmakers:
    • One was bearish, arguing that slower U.S. data-center construction could hurt chip demand and that semiconductor stocks had risen on expectations of a prolonged buildout.
    • The other argued that chips are a global commodity and that demand could shift overseas, including to China, if U.S. construction slows without a broad export ban.
  • Intel was a particular concern. One host said they sold at $74 after the company lowered its Q4 guidance and were waiting for a better entry, mentioning the $40s as a level where the valuation might be more attractive.
  • For SanDisk, the same host mentioned waiting for prices in the $600s to allow for further multiple compression.
  • The more bullish host argued that companies such as Nvidia, Intel, Micron, and SK Hynix could still benefit from global chip demand, even if U.S. data-center growth slows.

Takeaways

  • There is no unified chipmaker view: the central question is whether constrained U.S. construction reduces overall demand or redirects it to other markets.
  • The $40s for Intel and $600s for SanDisk were levels one host was considering, not firm recommendations or price targets.

Copper

  • One host said a slowdown in data-center construction would be bad for copper, linking the commodity’s outlook to infrastructure buildout.

Takeaways

  • The negative view depends on data-center and related infrastructure investment slowing.
  • The transcript does not provide a price level or separate analysis of other sources of copper demand.

Gold and Silver

  • The hosts noted that gold and silver had performed well on the day and suggested they might be starting a new trend.
  • No price targets or specific entry points were discussed.

Takeaways

  • The metals were raised as potential beneficiaries of the market environment, but the discussion did not establish a detailed thesis or recommendation.

Defense Companies

  • One host said they did not like owning defense companies, amid discussion of changing political priorities and the Iran conflict.

Takeaways

  • This was a general bearish preference, not a company-specific thesis. The transcript does not identify particular defense stocks or quantify the risks.

OpenAI and Anthropic

  • The hosts suggested that slower growth in compute supply, combined with continuing demand, could help raise revenue for OpenAI and Anthropic.
  • They also said the supply constraint could be favorable for the companies’ prospective IPOs.

Takeaways

  • The potential benefit is stronger pricing or revenue if compute supply tightens while demand keeps growing.
  • These are private companies in the discussion, and the transcript gives no IPO timing, valuation, or direct investment opportunity.

Venezuela and Latin American Investments

  • One host said a Democratic political shift could bring more scrutiny or pushback against investments in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America that were associated with Trump allies.
  • Venezuelan oil-field investments by crypto figures were mentioned as an example.

Takeaways

  • The risk raised was political and regulatory backlash toward investments linked to Trump-associated figures.
  • The transcript did not identify publicly traded companies or give specific investment recommendations in the region.

Treasuries

  • One host said they would have moved fully into Treasuries if California’s wealth-tax measure had passed, viewing that outcome as a sign of a more fundamental political shift.
  • The measure did not pass.

Takeaways

  • This was a conditional response to a specific political scenario, not a general Treasury recommendation.
  • The hosts viewed the measure’s failure as reassuring for markets.

Equity Markets and the Nasdaq

  • The hosts described the broader market as healthy and said they expected a possible rally, with one arguing that political gridlock could limit new regulation and legislation.
  • They also said that if the Iran war ends, lower oil and inflation could support stocks, including the Nasdaq.
  • One host remained positive on a broad index strategy, saying they had not regretted staying invested through the midterms.

Takeaways

  • The constructive market view rests on gridlock, easing political uncertainty, and potentially lower oil prices.
  • The hosts identified exceptions to that optimism, including certain neoclouds and crypto businesses dependent on political support or regulatory clarity.

Prediction Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket

  • One host said prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket were more useful than polls for assessing election outcomes because they adjust to polling bias.
  • The host specifically pointed to Kalshi’s Democrat index and candidate probabilities as signals they could have used to trade oil ahead of the election.

Takeaways

  • The discussion treats prediction markets as possible information sources for event-driven trades, not as investments in themselves.
  • Election-linked trades can move quickly and carry substantial risk; the transcript describes the missed oil trade as hindsight, not a guaranteed strategy.
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Episode Description
The morning after the blue wave, and both hosts spend an hour admitting they got it wrong. Jonah walks through the JD Vance tweet he thinks is the best explanation of what happened. Then the part they didn’t see coming: that affordability was the whole election, and that the Iran war was a political catastrophe regardless of how it looks geopolitically. Avi calls it the end of MAGA politics and a repudiation of Trump rather than of conservatism. Jonah is still kicking himself for not shorting oil, down twenty-three dollars, and has one takeaway: trust the prediction markets over the polls. Then the trades. Why a slowdown in data center buildout is good for the hyperscalers who already own compute and bad for the chip makers who were priced for infinite construction, whether a Democratic sweep actually hurts crypto, and the one chart Jonah says matters more than anything else for your bags. Plus NBC’s exit poll finding that 56% of voters called AI and data centers a major factor in their vote, Jonah on why oil goes back up no matter who’s in charge, and why the California wealth tax failing is the most important result of the night. -- Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/thousandxpod Try the 1000x Terminal: https://1000x.money -- Timestamps: 00:00 Coming Up on 1000x... 00:49 The Blue Tsunami 02:17 The JD Vance Tweet That Explains Everything 05:05 Affordability Above All Else 09:28 “This Is The End Of MAGA Politics” 12:14 Is This Actually Bad For Crypto? 18:56 Good For Hyperscalers, Bad For Chip Makers 33:32 The Iran War Is DOA 46:42 Americans Crossed The Aisle 52:50 “I Am Out Of Touch With Reality” -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
About 1000x
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By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.