MARKET UPDATE: FED Backstops The Yen, Metals Rip, And Neoclouds Rebound
MARKET UPDATE: FED Backstops The Yen, Metals Rip, And Neoclouds Rebound
2 hours ago1000xBlockworks
Podcast52 min 43 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Allocate capital to Gold for a short-to-medium-term trade as central banks actively accumulate reserves with expectations of reaching all-time highs over the next six months. Buy Copper for a long-term structural trade to gain bottleneck-level exposure to the artificial intelligence and energy transition macro trends. Consider Robinhood (HOOD) around the $92 to $93 range as a risk-adjusted equity proxy to capitalize on rising crypto trading volumes. Allocate to Micron Technology (MU) within a concentrated risk-on portfolio to capture aggressive upside tied to the AI hardware super cycle. Accumulate Ethereum (ETH) for a favorable short-to-medium-term trade targeting a move back toward $2,100 while utilizing a stop-loss structure below $1,800.

Detailed Analysis

Dollar-Yen (USD/JPY)

  • Discussed as a fantastic leading indicator for U.S. treasuries, with Japan cited as a major offshore holder of U.S. treasuries.
  • Features a carry trade dynamic where low borrowing costs in yen fund purchases of higher-yielding assets, which ultimately helps keep interest rates low and capital flowing into risk assets.
  • U.S. government intervention (via Scott Besson) to strengthen the yen is seen as an effort to stabilize markets and prevent Japan from aggressively dumping U.S. treasuries.

Takeaways

  • Consider building a systematic trading strategy using AI tools like Claude Code or ChatGPT, utilizing decades of historical dollar-yen price data relative to its moving average as a signal to trade treasury futures.
  • If you cannot intuitively explain why a macro currency trade is happening, it is advised to avoid taking risk on the back of it.

Gold

  • Bullish sentiment, with expectations of hitting all-time highs in the next six months.
  • Central bank selling (such as mass degrossing) has ended, and central banks like the Korean Central Bank are actively adding to gold reserves again to prepare for future crises.
  • Driven heavily by capital flows and central bank accumulation rather than traditional sensitivity to interest rates.

Takeaways

  • Allocate capital to gold as a short-to-medium-term trade, with expectations of continued strength over the next three months.

Palladium

  • Bullish sentiment, with the chart described as looking phenomenal and showing immense market strength alongside other metals.

Takeaways

  • Look to metals like palladium and other commodities to benefit from strong capital flows and overlooked market strength over a three-month time horizon.

Copper

  • Highlighted as a top pick for a long-term structural trade, endorsed by Stanley Druckenmiller.
  • Driven by a massive multi-year super cycle in demand (fueled by chip demand, data centers, energy transfer, and building infrastructure) meeting fixed and capped supply constraints.

Takeaways

  • Buy copper for pure, bottleneck-level exposure to the artificial intelligence and energy transition macro trends.

Intel (INTC)

  • Mentioned as a phenomenal hold and a solid fundamental equity play in the current market environment.
  • One speaker noted a personal entry price around $93.

Takeaways

  • Hold Intel as part of a concentrated equity strategy or consider it as a stable tech holding.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • Viewed as a strong proxy trade to gain leveraged exposure to the crypto ecosystem while maintaining downside protection via traditional equity and options revenue.
  • Crypto-related trading volumes generate significantly higher margins for Robinhood compared to standard stocks and options.
  • One speaker reported buying Robinhood shares around the $92 to $93 range.

Takeaways

  • Consider Robinhood as a risk-adjusted way to capitalize on rising crypto activity without the higher volatility of holding direct tokens.

Micron Technology (MU)

  • Highlighted as a high-conviction "moonshot" risk-on trade.
  • Positioned at the tip of the spear for hardware demand alongside AI and memory beneficiaries.

Takeaways

  • Allocate to Micron within a concentrated risk-on portfolio to capture aggressive upside associated with the AI hardware super cycle.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Showing technical resilience, holding above key support levels around $60,000.
  • One speaker noted they would consider taking profits or selling if prices reach $75,000 to $80,000.

Takeaways

  • Treat Bitcoin as a longer-term position within a moonshot portfolio, but expect resistance or consolidation at higher price targets like $75,000 to $80,000.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • Noted as showing improved technical structure, finding a strong support floor around $1,550.
  • Offers a favorable risk-reward setup for traders, with one speaker pointing to a potential trading target back toward $2,100 (with a stop-loss structure below $1,800).

Takeaways

  • Ethereum presents a viable short-to-medium-term trade for crypto-focused investors looking for structured risk-reward entries.

SpaceX (Private)

  • Strong divergence of opinion regarding its valuation and future price action.
  • One speaker is bullish following strong earnings (beating analyst expectations at $7.8 billion) and upcoming milestones, while another warns against buying due to the upcoming heavy deluge of share supply unlocks post-IPO.

Takeaways

  • Avoid investing in SpaceX due to the significant downside risk posed by upcoming share supply unlocks.
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Episode Description
This week, we break down why the Fed and Treasury just moved to backstop the yen and what it signals about an increasingly state-controlled market. We discuss why you should only hold what the administration has "anointed," the quiet power grab away from the Fed and the end of forward guidance, why gold, silver, copper and palladium are ripping, why Druckenmiller says the single best trade is copper, whether crypto is finally worth buying again and why Robinhood is the best way to express it, why private wealth management is a scam, why the stock market now trades exactly like crypto did in 2021, and the rising socialist wave that could take your portfolio to the woodshed by 2028. Enjoy! -- Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/thousandxpod Try the 1000x Terminal: https://1000x.money -- Timestamps: (00:00) Coming Up on 1000x... (00:32) Why The Fed Just Backstopped The Yen (05:54) The State-Controlled Market: Only Buy What Trump Anoints (13:07) Gold, Copper & Why It's All Just Flows Now (19:03) Druckenmiller Says Buy Copper (22:08) Is Crypto Finally Worth Buying Again? (27:57) Private Wealth Management Is A Scam (37:14) The Stock Market Is Crypto Now (40:38) The Socialist Wave Coming For Your Portfolio -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
About 1000x
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By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.