MARKET UPDATE: Anthropic S-1, Market Bottoms, What’s Next?
MARKET UPDATE: Anthropic S-1, Market Bottoms, What’s Next?
1 hour ago•1000x•Blockworks
Podcast49 min 8 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider Micron (MU) on dips: the hosts expect AI-driven memory demand and tight supply to support the sector, though they gave no price target.
  • Buy QQQ or the S&P 500 on event-driven sell-offs, in line with the hosts’ buy-the-dip view; expect volatility around midterm uncertainty.
  • Intel (INTC) drew cautious bullish interest after recovering from roughly $85 to $93–$94, but no target was provided.
  • Treat Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term, high-risk accumulation idea only if it fits your risk tolerance; the $1 million within 10 years figure was one host’s forecast, not a reliable target.
  • Avoid speculative, undercapitalized neoclouds and be cautious with ETH, SOL, and other altcoins given the risks of funding shortfalls and tighter regulation.
Detailed Analysis

Anthropic (Private)

  • The hosts discussed Anthropic’s S-1 filing and noted $132 billion in cash alongside reported future compute commitments exceeding $500 billion.
  • One host said the company may need to keep growing rapidly or receive outside support. Another viewed it as a coin flip whether Anthropic can meet its commitments independently, and suggested the founders may eventually have to give up some control to attract more capital.
  • They considered Anthropic’s financial disclosures a risk for parts of the AI trade, but not necessarily a reason to expect the broader AI market to collapse.
  • The S-1 also disclosed a risk that AI could become dangerous or uncontrollable.

Takeaways

  • Anthropic was discussed as a high-profile private company, not as a publicly traded investment. Its cash balance is substantial, but the scale of its compute commitments and reliance on continued growth or outside support are key risks to watch.
  • The hosts’ view was that weakness related to the filing had been largely priced in, though they warned that a slowdown in Anthropic’s growth could cause market volatility.

Intel (INTC)

  • Intel fell from about $120 to $85 ahead of Anthropic’s S-1, then recovered to roughly $93–$94 in the discussion.
  • One host said they had added to their Intel position and viewed the pullback as part of broader de-risking ahead of the filing and midterms.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautiously bullish on Intel after its pullback, with one host adding to their position. This was presented as a personal trade, not a specific price target.

SanDisk (SNDK)

  • SanDisk was described as having sold off ahead of Anthropic’s S-1 and then rebounding about 6% on the day of the discussion.
  • The hosts used the move as an example of the market reversing after investors had already positioned for bad news.

Takeaways

  • The commentary was short-term bullish after the rebound, but did not include a specific recommendation or valuation view.

Memory and DRAM (Micron, SK Hynix)

  • One host said they were considering adding to DRAM exposure.
  • Another recommended buying Micron (MU) on dips and cited SK Hynix as saying it was sold out through 2030, supporting the view that memory supply could remain tight.
  • They also cautioned against buying the Korean stock market as a whole.

Takeaways

  • The hosts were bullish on memory demand and potential supply shortages, particularly for AI-related computing.
  • Micron on dips was the clearest stock-specific idea. The discussion did not provide a price target.

AI, Semiconductors, and Neoclouds

  • The hosts described the AI trade as still being in an early stage, while acknowledging that hot bull markets can have sharp volatility.
  • They said some neocloud companies may be undercapitalized, face consolidation, or be absorbed by larger hyperscalers. One host specifically warned against investing in neoclouds that may run out of money.
  • They argued that a slowdown in AI growth could cause a temporary sell-off, but might also create a buying opportunity. They also noted that AI demand could attract substantial new investment, including equity capital.
  • The hosts expressed concern that a strongly anti-AI political environment could lead to restrictions, while also arguing that AI is important enough to the U.S. economy that it is unlikely to be stopped altogether.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was bullish on AI demand overall but selective about individual companies.
  • The main risk identified was that weaker, undercapitalized neoclouds could fail or be consolidated, even if larger AI companies and suppliers continue to benefit.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • One host said Meta could benefit if it receives subsidized AI models or compute from struggling neocloud providers.
  • Meta’s announced compute commitments were also cited as evidence of significant investment flowing into the AI ecosystem.

Takeaways

  • The comments were potentially bullish on Meta as a large company that may benefit from industry consolidation, but no direct recommendation or price target was given.

QQQ and S&P 500

  • The hosts suggested buying broader market indices such as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) and the S&P 500 on dips.
  • One host said the market had already de-risked ahead of the midterms and expected a rally after the uncertainty passed. They said a sharp sell-off following a Democratic win could be a buying opportunity, while a Republican win could lead to a larger rally.
  • The hosts disagreed on the likely political and market impact, particularly around how much risk a Democratic victory would pose.

Takeaways

  • The broad-market view was buy-the-dip, especially after event-driven sell-offs. The proposed approach depended on the investor’s view of political risk and tolerance for volatility.

Biotech and ARK Genomics (ARKG)

  • One host said biotech and ARK Genomics (ARKG) were part of their portfolio and noted that ARKG was approaching new highs.

Takeaways

  • The comments were positive, but the hosts did not provide specific stock picks within biotech or a price target for ARKG.

Uranium and Nuclear Energy

  • One host said they were looking for another entry into uranium but did not currently own it.
  • The investment thesis was that rising electricity demand, including from data centers, could increase interest in nuclear power. The host also said that European acceptance of nuclear as a clean energy source could help shift attitudes elsewhere.
  • The other host cautioned that nuclear projects have long timelines, citing seven to ten years to build plants, and argued that natural-gas power plants could be built more quickly.

Takeaways

  • Uranium was presented as a potential long-term opportunity, tied to energy demand and nuclear power’s role in supplying electricity to data centers.
  • The key risk discussed was the long time required to build nuclear capacity; no specific uranium stock, fund, or entry price was named.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • One host argued that Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin within the next 10 years, citing continued currency debasement and the likelihood that governments will keep adding liquidity.
  • The same host said Bitcoin may behave more like gold, with long periods of little movement followed by large gains, and suggested accumulating it.
  • Another host said Bitcoin was more resilient than most crypto assets because it is a global phenomenon. However, they also warned that a future Democratic administration could target crypto broadly and that Bitcoin itself might draw scrutiny, including through pressure on prominent holders.
  • A separate bearish argument was that Bitcoin could be “dead money” compared with other investments for a period.

Takeaways

  • The long-term view was bullish, but near-term sentiment was mixed. The $1 million figure was a host’s forecast, not a consensus or guaranteed target.
  • The discussion highlighted political and regulatory uncertainty as risks, while suggesting Bitcoin may be less exposed than other crypto assets.

Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Other Layer-1 Tokens

  • One host said Ethereum, Solana, and other layer-1 assets could be especially vulnerable to stricter crypto regulation under a Democratic administration.
  • They suggested that investors concerned about that outcome might consider put options on Ethereum as a hedge.
  • The hosts also argued that many crypto tokens may not be necessary for blockchain technology to be used in financial services, and said altcoins could trend toward zero over time.
  • The discussion was not uniformly bearish on all blockchain-related businesses: the hosts suggested that technology integrated into traditional financial institutions could be more resilient.

Takeaways

  • The outlook for ETH, SOL, and other layer-1 tokens was bearish and high-risk, particularly under a stricter regulatory regime.
  • The suggested puts were presented as a possible hedge by a host, not as a general recommendation. Options can expire worthless, and the transcript did not specify strikes or expirations.

Hyperliquid and Crypto Infrastructure

  • Hyperliquid was cited as a crypto project that was performing well, but one host questioned whether it was sufficiently adopted by hedge funds to withstand a regulatory crackdown.
  • The hosts discussed the possibility that blockchain infrastructure could be adopted by financial institutions, while questioning whether tokens would be necessary for that adoption.
  • They suggested that crypto projects integrated into traditional finance may be better positioned than projects dependent on speculative token demand.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was cautious: institutional adoption could support some crypto infrastructure, but token value and regulatory resilience remain uncertain.
  • No specific recommendation or price target for Hyperliquid was given.

Coinbase (COIN) and Crypto Regulation

  • Coinbase was mentioned as a company exploring AI-related opportunities as well as crypto.
  • One host warned that a Democratic administration could impose stricter rules on Coinbase and the broader crypto sector, including more aggressive enforcement by the SEC and CFTC or new legislation.
  • The hosts also argued that businesses serving established financial institutions may have better prospects than speculative token projects.

Takeaways

  • Coinbase and crypto businesses face regulatory risk in the hosts’ view. Their long-term prospects may depend partly on whether they can build products useful to traditional financial institutions, but the transcript did not provide a stock-specific recommendation.

Altcoins and Crypto Tokens

  • One host described themselves as bearish on most tokens other than Bitcoin and said many altcoins could trend toward zero over time.
  • They argued that blockchain technology may be adopted without requiring a token, weakening the case for many token-based investment theses.
  • They also said a Democratic administration could accelerate regulatory and legal pressure on crypto assets.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was strongly bearish on many altcoins for the long term. The hosts viewed speculative token supply and regulatory exposure as significant concerns.

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Episode Description
The whole market de-risked into the Anthropic S-1. Then it bottomed the day the filing dropped. Avi is back in New York after a month that ran from Token2049 in Singapore to a wedding in Iraq, and he opens on why that trade keeps working — the market as a weighing machine, the perception of reality getting so bad that there’s nowhere left to go, and the short blowout that followed. Intel at 85 back to 94, SanDisk up six percent, Nasdaq up two. Same trade as the tariffs. Same trade as Iran. Then Jonah on the filing itself. A hundred and thirty-two billion in cash against forward compute commitments north of half a trillion, which leaves exponential growth, death, or a bailout — and he thinks he knows which. Founders holding 50.1% voting control is the detail he’s most bearish on. But the broader read is constructive: SK Hynix sold out through 2030, a DRAM shortage with a long runway, another two hundred billion of equity capital entering the system, and an AI trade still in the first or second inning. The thing to avoid is uncreditworthy neo clouds whose creditors end up subsidizing Meta’s buildout. From there, the risk that actually matters before the midterms, which Jonah argues is a single Polymarket chart. Avi pushes back hard on the affordability narrative, on who’s really struggling, and on why housing supply is the whole ballgame. And they land somewhere counterintuitive: a Democratic administration probably can’t stop AI, but it can do almost anything it wants to crypto. Plus: why shorting altcoins may be the cleanest hedge in the book, million dollar Bitcoin, Jason Calacanis being annoyingly right, and why giving up on nuclear after Three Mile Island was the worst own goal in modern economic history. -- Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/thousandxpod Try the 1000x Terminal: https://1000x.money -- Timestamps: 00:00 Coming Up on 1000x... 00:36 Why The Market Bottomed On The S-1 07:57 “Israel Is A Third World Country” 12:50 $132B In Cash, Half A Trillion In Commitments 16:39 The Only Chart That Matters 20:37 Affordability, The DSA, And What Actually Breaks 30:22 Crypto Is The Real Political Risk, Not AI 33:27 Million Dollar Bitcoin 41:16 You Only Need One Token 44:05 Three Mile Island, And The Worst Own Goal In Modern History -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
About 1000x
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1000x

By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.