Market Meltdown, Crypto vs Equities, & Is This Bounce A Buy?
Market Meltdown, Crypto vs Equities, & Is This Bounce A Buy?
166 days ago1000xBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 10 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider buying Bitcoin (BTC) at its current price, as analysts see a potential 50% upside within the next three months. The NASDAQ is expected to reach new all-time highs within two months, driven by the massive profitability boost from Artificial Intelligence (AI). Google (GOOGL) is a top equity pick due to its strong market position and the game-changing potential of its Gemini 3 AI model. For a shorter-term trade, look to buy Solana (SOL) in the $126-$128 range with a price target of $155-$185. Prioritize investing in established crypto applications over new infrastructure tokens, as this is where future value is expected to be captured.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speakers are very bullish on Bitcoin at its current levels, viewing the recent sell-off as a prime buying opportunity. One speaker states, "this area that we're in right now, if you buy and you wait three months, I think you're up 50%."
  • The recent price drop from 125K is attributed to a broader equity market sell-off, not a crypto-specific issue.
  • There was strong buying demand when Bitcoin hit the $80K level, with the price bouncing "ridiculously hard."
  • One speaker notes buying BTC around the $85K and $86K levels, believing it won't go much lower.
  • While many are waiting for a drop to the $72K - $75K range, the speakers believe it's unlikely to get there without a significant bounce first, potentially to $95K or $100K, to trap late buyers.
  • The selling pressure from "OGs" (early holders) that was present on the way down from 125K has reportedly slowed significantly below $100K.
  • The risk of companies with large Bitcoin holdings (like MicroStrategy) selling is considered a "red herring" and overblown.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The current price range (around $85K - $88K) is viewed as the "beginning of the bottom" and a strong buying opportunity for a multi-month hold.
  • Entry Point: Buying at these levels is considered a good entry, as waiting for a perfect entry at $75K may mean missing the move entirely. The risk/reward is favorable, with the potential to "almost double your money" if the previous target of $150K is re-tested.
  • Trading Strategy: Don't get discouraged by past trades. Assess the market fresh each day. The current setup looks good on both short-term and long-term charts. A potential path is a rally to $95K-$100K, followed by another dip, before a larger trend reversal upwards.

Equities & Macro

  • The speakers are generally bullish on equities, particularly big tech, believing fears are "massively overblown." They anticipate the NASDAQ will see all-time highs within the next one to two months.
  • The main driver for this bullishness is Artificial Intelligence (AI), which is expected to massively increase corporate profitability by reducing the need for employees. This is seen as a catalyst as disruptive as the internet, but moving at 10x the speed.
  • A potential macro catalyst is the end of the Ukraine war, which could lead to a flood of commodities like wheat and oil, causing inflation to drop and forcing the Fed to cut interest rates.
  • Risk Factor: While AI-driven job losses are a long-term social risk that could lead to "social revolutions," the immediate impact on corporate profits and the stock market is seen as overwhelmingly positive. The market could "double before we get any sort of revolution."

Takeaways

  • Bullish on Tech: The equity market, led by strong tech earnings, is seen as a buy. AI is a powerful tailwind that should continue to drive major indices higher.
  • Ride the Strongest: The strategy of buying the strongest-performing assets is highlighted. Stocks that barely went down during the sell-off (like Google) are expected to rebound the hardest.
  • Portfolio Allocation: One speaker shifted some capital from recent equity gains into crypto, believing crypto now has more immediate upside after being "underweight" in his trading portfolio.

Google (GOOGL)

  • Google is described as "ripping" and continuously pushing all-time highs. It is seen as a very strong stock that "barely went down" during the recent market dip.
  • The company's new AI model, Gemini 3, is considered a "game changer" and "ludicrously good," even better than ChatGPT.
  • The bullish thesis is that Google, with its superior AI, will reclaim its position as the main "entry point of the internet" and potentially "eat a lot of OpenAI's market cap."
  • One speaker believes Google could go on an "absolutely generational fucking run" and "could quite literally double from here."

Takeaways

  • Strong Buy: Google is presented as a top pick in the equity market due to its strength during the downturn and the game-changing potential of its Gemini 3 AI.
  • Market Leader: As a market leader with a superior product, it's expected to continue outperforming the broader market and even its direct competitors.

Meta (META)

  • Despite recent underperformance, one speaker is "super bullish" on Meta.
  • The core thesis is that no company (besides NVIDIA) has more to gain from AI. Meta's ad-targeting business, which leverages its control over "two-thirds of the planet's attention," is highly defensible and will be supercharged by AI.
  • The market is seen as unfairly punishing Meta for its spending on AR glasses. The speaker believes this hardware will become the "iPhone of the future," a ubiquitous platform that Meta will own, giving it a massive long-term advantage.
  • The speaker argues that while AI models (LLMs) will eventually become commoditized, owning the hardware platform (the glasses) will be the most valuable position.

Takeaways

  • Contrarian Buy: Meta is presented as a long-term buy, with the market mispricing its future potential.
  • Long-Term Vision: The investment case is based on the belief that Meta's hardware spending will create a dominant new platform, similar to Apple's iPhone ecosystem, and that its core ad business is uniquely positioned to benefit from AI.

Solana (SOL)

  • Solana is viewed favorably at current levels. The price range of $126 to $128 is identified as a "strong value level" that has been defended multiple times.
  • It is seen as a reasonable area to "scale in" for a trade.
  • A potential price target range for a bounce is $155 to $185.
  • The speakers discuss how L1 tokens like Solana and Ethereum are becoming "commodities." This means they are best traded in a range: buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top.

Takeaways

  • Range Trade: Solana is a good candidate for a range trade. Buying around the $126-$128 support level with a target of $155-$185 is the suggested play.
  • Commodity Mindset: Don't think of it as a long-term "invest and hold" asset in the same way as Bitcoin. Instead, view it as a volatile commodity to be actively traded.

Application & Infrastructure Tokens

  • Monad: The speakers are highly skeptical, questioning its purpose and value proposition. It's viewed as just another L1 blockchain in a market that is already saturated with infrastructure and lacks applications. The sentiment is that it's a project "created in a factory by venture capitalists."
  • Aster (ASTER): Discussed as a speculative bet on a CZ (founder of Binance) comeback. The token has held up well during the market sell-off, suggesting a strong buyer is present. The bull case is that CZ is focused on his legacy and will build a real, lasting application, leading to a "hated rally." The bear case is its high $9 billion fully-diluted valuation (FDV) and the risk that CZ could abandon it.
  • BNB (BNB): A bullish case is made for BNB as a more direct way to bet on Binance's success. The reasoning is that Binance is extremely profitable and, as the largest holder of BNB, is incentivized to return value to token holders.
  • Shuffle (SHUF): Mentioned as a preferred casino coin over Rollbit. The speaker likes the founder and sees it as a potential "next coming MGM."
  • Fat Protocol Thesis is Dead: A core theme is that the old idea of value accruing to L1 protocols ("fat protocols") is wrong. The speakers believe value will be captured by the application layer. This is why they are skeptical of new infrastructure plays like Monad and more interested in application-specific tokens.

Takeaways

  • Focus on Applications: Investors should shift their focus from new L1/L2 infrastructure projects to tokens of actual, working applications that have users and revenue.
  • Skepticism on New L1s: Be wary of new, highly-funded L1s like Monad that lack a clear, unique use case or existing ecosystem.
  • Speculative Bets: Aster is a high-risk, high-reward bet on CZ's influence. The key to this trade is determining CZ's level of commitment. BNB is presented as a safer, more direct proxy for betting on Binance's continued dominance.
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Episode Description
Gm! This week, we talk about crypto's market meltdown, why bearish sentiment overshot, and why value levels, OG seller exhaustion, and stronger macro backdrops may set up a bullish reversal. We also dive into how AI, equities, and app-layer innovation will shape the next phase of crypto. Enjoy! – Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes! Spotify: https://bit.ly/4676Sob  Apple: https://bit.ly/4etlBMd  – Follow Avi:  https://x.com/AviFelman  Follow Jonah:  https://x.com/jvb_xyz  Follow 1000x:  https://x.com/1000xPod   Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh – Kraken offers crypto margin trading to qualified U.S. clients through Kraken Pro. Access up to 10x leverage on supported pairs. Built-in risk tools, unified account experience, and deep liquidity from a Platform trusted for over 14 years.  Learn more: https://www.kraken.com/en-ca/features/margin-trading   Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers (excluding NY and ME) through Payward Interactive, Inc. View legal disclosures at kraken.com/legal/disclosures. Availability of margin trading services is subject to certain limitations and eligibility criteria. Trading using margin involves an element of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. Read Kraken’s Margin Disclosure Statement to learn more. – Peaq, the Machine Economy Computer, proudly sponsors the 1000x podcast.  Peaq is home to 60+ apps across 20+ industries and millions of onchain devices, machines, and robots.  It powers the world’s first tokenized robo-farm in Hong Kong and has launched the Machine Economy Free Zone in Dubai as an innovation hub for Web3, Robotics, and AI. For more about peaq, check out www.peaq.xyz – Katana directs chain revenue back to DeFi users for consistently higher yields. It starts with VaultBridge, which turns bridged assets into yield streams that back a perpetually funded real yield, boosting rewards for DeFi users. Katana is pioneering Productive TVL, assets actually being used in DeFi and reinforces this with Chain-owned Liquidity, permanent liquidity the chain controls. Stop sleeping on your bags: https://app.katana.network/?utm_source=BW-Pod – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:41) Are We So Back? (07:03) Market Fear Overblown  (10:20) Ads (Kraken OTC, Peaq) (11:36) Bitcoin, Equities, Macro (24:32) Crypto vs Equities (27:52) The Fed, Ukraine War, Inflation (33:36) Ads (Kraken OTC, Peaq, Katana) (35:31) Do We Need New L1s? (42:18) Crypto’s Internet Moment (48:08) Applications Will Beat Protocols (52:00) Aster & CZ Debate (01:02:46) Meta Bull Thesis – Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed
About 1000x
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By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.