Finding Edge as a Trader, The Hyperliquid Thesis & Trades For 2026 | Capital Flows
Finding Edge as a Trader, The Hyperliquid Thesis & Trades For 2026 | Capital Flows
59 days ago1000xBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 4 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Investors seeking exposure to the Hyperliquid ecosystem can use Hyperliquid Strategies (PER) as a high-conviction proxy for the protocol's institutional-grade growth through 2026. Oracle (ORCL) is a top-tier "leveraged bet" on AI, with management targeting a long-term stock price of $800 supported by aggressive share buybacks and low float. To capitalize on the massive energy requirements of AI data centers, focus on Uranium Miners based in the US or Western-allied nations rather than the raw commodity. Gold remains a vital hedge against global de-dollarization, though investors should watch for a resolution in Middle East tensions as a potential signal to rotate back into US Equities. For industrial growth and domestic self-reliance, prioritize Copper and Rare Earth Minerals companies that operate independently of Chinese supply chains.

Detailed Analysis

Based on the transcript from the 1000x by Blockworks podcast featuring the analyst Capital Flows, here are the key investment insights and asset-specific takeaways.


Hyperliquid / Hyperliquid Strategies (PER)

The guest identifies Hyperliquid as one of his highest-conviction bets for 2025-2026. He views it as a disruptive force in the crypto industry that focuses on creating actual product value rather than just "listing tokens to dump on retail."

  • The Thesis: Hyperliquid is moving toward providing "ISDA-level leverage" (institutional grade) to a broad audience.
  • TradFi Integration: The goal is to bring traditional financial products onto the blockchain rather than trying to force crypto into traditional finance systems.
  • The "PER" Ticker: Because direct exposure to the Hyperliquid protocol can be difficult for regulated entities or US-based retail investors, the guest uses Hyperliquid Strategies (PER)—a NASDAQ-listed treasury company—as a proxy.
  • Catalysts:
    • Potential 24/7 trading of perpetual contracts (perps) on major exchanges (CME, Kraken).
    • Increased arbitrage opportunities that will lower funding rates and drive more capital to the platform.
    • The eventual addition of Hyperliquid to US regulatory frameworks.

Takeaways

  • Proxy Play: For investors who cannot access decentralized exchanges directly, PER acts as a "front-run" on the growth of the Hyperliquid ecosystem.
  • Value Creation: Look for platforms that offer unique financial utility (like high-leverage perps) rather than just speculative "meme" or "VC-backed" tokens.

Oracle (ORCL)

The analyst views Oracle as a unique "leveraged bet" on the AI revolution, driven by the aggressive management style of Larry Ellison.

  • Aggressive Leverage: Ellison has leveraged the company’s balance sheet, income statement, and CapEx to go "all-in" on AI and data centers.
  • Supply Dynamics: Ellison owns roughly 40% of the company, and aggressive share buybacks have significantly reduced the "float" (available shares), meaning high demand can move the price upward rapidly.
  • Price Target: The guest suggests Ellison is aiming for a stock price near $800 (currently trading significantly lower).

Takeaways

  • High Conviction: This is a "swing for the fences" trade. The guest utilizes call options to play this move, indicating a desire for leveraged upside.
  • Management Alignment: Betting on a "savage" founder (Ellison) who is personally incentivized to drive the stock price to new all-time highs.

Gold & Precious Metals

The guest maintains a bullish stance on Gold, primarily as a geopolitical and "de-dollarization" hedge.

  • Central Bank Demand: Gold is being stockpiled by global central banks as they attempt to diversify away from US Treasuries.
  • The "Iran" Risk: A major risk to the gold thesis is a "clean" resolution to conflict in the Middle East (specifically regime change in Iran). If the US re-establishes clear hegemony, the "multipolar world" trade (and gold) could suffer.

Takeaways

  • Hedge Position: Gold remains a core position for a world that is diversifying away from the US Dollar.
  • Exit Signal: If geopolitical tensions resolve in a way that strongly favors the US, it may be time to rotate out of gold and back into US Equities.

Uranium & Energy

A bullish outlook is maintained for the energy sector, specifically nuclear power, to support the massive electricity needs of AI data centers.

  • The "Grid" Problem: Data center expansion in places like Washington state is hitting a ceiling because the electrical grid is tapped out.
  • The Play: Focus on Uranium Miners rather than the raw commodity.
  • Geography Matters: Preference for US-based or Western-allied miners to avoid supply chain fracturing and geopolitical risks associated with China.

Takeaways

  • Infrastructure Play: Uranium is the "picks and shovels" play for the AI boom.
  • Contract Security: Miners are preferred because they benefit from long-term production contracts regardless of short-term price fluctuations in uranium.

Macro Themes & Strategy

1. The "Golden Age" of Discretionary Trading

  • The market has shifted from "Big Fish" (large hedge funds) to "Small Fish" (individual traders).
  • Why: Large funds are "skittish" and cannot move billions of dollars quickly enough to react to 24/7 headline risks. Individual traders can be more nimble.
  • Insight: Use "Agentic" (AI) models and machine learning as tools to assist discretionary decisions rather than relying on purely systematic/automated price-following strategies.

2. Global Liquidity vs. AI Hype

  • The analyst argues that high equity valuations are driven more by Global Liquidity (specifically dollar and yen flows) than by AI innovation alone.
  • Risk: A "positioning mismatch" exists where foreigners are unhedged against a weaker dollar. If the US pushes the dollar down to rebalance trade, it could cause a significant "tail event" or drawdown in equities.

3. Rare Earth Minerals & Copper

  • Bullish on Copper for industrial purposes and Rare Earth Minerals for US self-reliance.
  • Insight: Avoid companies that rely heavily on importing these materials from China; favor those with domestic or allied supply chains.
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Episode Description
This week, Capital Flows joins the show to discuss how to develop trading strategies in 2026. We deep dive into how to find edge as a trader, the impact of war in Iran, the thesis for Hyperliquid, trades for 2026 & more. Enjoy! -- Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes! Spotify: https://bit.ly/4676Sob Apple: https://bit.ly/4etlBMd -- Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (05:25) How’s Trading Changed Over Time? (18:08) Discretionary Trading In 2026 (24:15) How To Find Edge as a Trader (32:45) The Impact of The War in Iran (54:00) Trades For 2026 & The Hyperliquid Thesis -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed
About 1000x
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By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.