Bitcoin Reclaims $90k: Have We Bottomed?
Bitcoin Reclaims $90k: Have We Bottomed?
161 days ago1000xBlockworks
Podcast1 hr 11 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Analysts suggest Bitcoin (BTC) has bottomed, presenting a buying opportunity below $90,000 with a potential target of $100,000 within the next 1-2 months. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is considered a high-conviction trade with a price target of $50 within six weeks, supported by strong project revenue and demand in the $29-$32 range. The recent 33% pullback in Robinhood (HOOD) stock is identified as a key buying opportunity for a long-term bet on the growth of retail trading. For a more speculative play, Aster (ASTER) is a high-risk bet that could multiply in value if it closes the valuation gap with competitors, with strong support noted at $0.90. Lastly, Google (GOOG) is a bullish pick based on the belief that its Gemini AI model will win the AI race, transferring significant value to its public stock.

Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The hosts believe Bitcoin may have found a bottom around the $84,000 level after a significant sell-off from $100,000. This is based on a "classic bottoming pattern" where a massive volume spike during the initial crash (down to $80,000) indicated panic selling was exhausted.
  • The subsequent, lower-volume selling is interpreted as investors who bought around $92,000-$93,000 selling at their break-even point, which is seen as a less bearish signal than panic selling.
  • A key bullish sign is that Bitcoin did not make a new low below the $84,000 support level.
  • Analysis of past pullbacks shows that a 30% correction from the highs has consistently been a good buying opportunity for large, patient investors. A 30% drop offers an attractive potential upside of 50% to get back to the all-time high.
  • On-chain data suggests that "OG whale" (long-term, large holders) selling has slowed significantly below $90,000, with some signs they may have started accumulating again.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The overall sentiment is bullish, with the hosts believing the worst of the selling is over.
  • Potential Trade Strategy: A potential trade was identified: buying around $90,000 - $91,000 with a potential short-term target of $100,000. A stop-loss (an order to sell if the price drops to a certain level to limit losses) could be placed at $84,000.
  • Key Price Levels:
    • Buy Zone: Below $90,000 is described as a "buy with both hands" price.
    • Support: $84,000 is the critical support level to watch.
    • Resistance/Target: $100,000 is the next major level of resistance and a psychological barrier.
  • Timeline: The hosts expect December to be choppy but anticipate Bitcoin could break above $100,000 and potentially move toward all-time highs within the next 1-2 months, with significant institutional inflows expected in January.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Described as a "phenomenal trade right now" that held up remarkably well during the recent market-wide sell-off.
  • The hosts believe fears about new supply coming to the market from team token unlocks are "massively overrated."
  • The project is said to "continue to print money like nobody's business," indicating strong fundamental revenue generation.
  • The price range of $29 to $32 has acted as a very strong demand zone, with buyers consistently stepping in at this level.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: Very bullish. Hype is seen as a top trade idea in the current market.
  • Price Target: One host predicted HYPE could reach $50 within the next six weeks.
  • Investment Thesis: The token is backed by a profitable project, and the market seems to be overlooking the negative narratives (like supply unlocks) in favor of its strong performance and demand.

Aster (ASTER)

  • One host is extremely bullish, calling it a potential "five-bagger" (an investment that increases five times in value).
  • The bull case is based on metrics like trading volume and fees, which are catching up to its main competitor, Hyperliquid, while its valuation is significantly lower (4.5x smaller).
  • The argument is that Aster could win not by having a superior product, but through the backing of influential figures like CZ (of Binance), who knows how to bootstrap an exchange. It's framed as a "bet on crime, corruption" and the idea that it will be "faked until it is made."
  • The chart shows that the token is refusing to break below $0.90, and the fact that insiders (who control a large portion of the supply) are not selling is seen as a potentially bullish sign.

Takeaways

  • High-Risk, High-Reward: This is presented as a highly speculative bet. The bullish thesis is not based on the product's quality but on market manipulation and powerful backers.
  • Potential Price Target: If Aster were to match Hyperliquid's valuation, the token price could theoretically reach $4.20 (from its current price of ~$1.01).
  • Contrarian View: Another host is skeptical, believing the data is likely fake. However, they concede that the lack of selling from insiders is a compelling point and that the "fake it 'til you make it" strategy worked for Binance in its early days.

Equity & Sector Insights

Google (GOOG)

  • Bullish Sentiment: The hosts are extremely bullish on Google due to the perceived superiority of its AI model, Gemini, over competitors like OpenAI's ChatGPT.
  • Investment Thesis: If Gemini wins the AI race, Google could absorb the massive valuation currently attributed to private companies like OpenAI. This would be a direct transfer of value to public GOOG shareholders.
  • Key Advantage: Google has its own infrastructure (TPUs) and a profitable core business, putting it in a much better position to make AI profitable compared to cash-burning competitors. The stock's recent lag behind the market is seen as a potential buying opportunity.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • Bullish Sentiment: The stock is called a "rocket ship" and a "secular bet."
  • Investment Thesis: Robinhood is seen as the best way to invest in the long-term trend of wealth being transferred from older generations (boomers) to younger generations who are more active traders.
  • Technical Signal: The stock recently pulled back 33% from its highs, a level the hosts identified as a "magic number" and a recurring buying opportunity for several growth assets.

MicroStrategy (MSTR)

  • Bearish Sentiment: After an initial debate, the hosts concluded they would not buy MSTR.
  • Risks:
    1. Dilution: The company will likely need to continuously sell new stock to fund its operations and Bitcoin purchases, putting downward pressure on the share price.
    2. Debt: The company's statement that it might have to sell Bitcoin derivatives to service its debt has spooked the market and adds a layer of risk.
    3. Outdated Model: The idea of using a stock as a proxy for Bitcoin is becoming less relevant as direct access to crypto becomes easier for all investors.

Galaxy (GLXY)

  • Bullish Sentiment: The hosts believe the chart for Galaxy shows signs of having bottomed out.
  • Takeaway: One host stated they were considering buying the stock during the podcast, viewing it as a good place to "deploy some Skrill" (invest capital).

Broader Market Themes

The "New Fed Chair" Catalyst

  • The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed Chair is seen as an extremely bullish catalyst for all risk assets, including crypto and stocks.
  • Hassett is described as "cartoonishly, stupidly dovish" and "bullish crypto." He has personal holdings in Coinbase (COIN) and has worked for crypto-focused firms.
  • The hosts believe his appointment would signal that the Trump administration wants to "supercharge this market" and avoid a downturn, likely through lower interest rates and pro-growth policies.

The AI Revolution

  • AI is considered the primary driver of the current technology market. The intense competition between Google, OpenAI, and others is seen as a guarantee that massive amounts of capital ("gasoline") will continue to be poured into the sector, fueling growth.
  • Long-Term Risk (2026-2027): While bullish for now, the hosts warn that this technological disruption could lead to a "mini collapse" in a few years as some industries are destroyed by AI. This future dip, however, would likely be a major buying opportunity.

Post-Crash Meme Coin Trading

  • After a major market sell-off, there's a psychological tendency for traders who lost money to chase high returns by piling into the riskiest assets available, such as meme coins.
  • Takeaway: While extremely risky, these "absolute dog shit" assets could be the best performers in the immediate short-term (e.g., 10 days) following a market bottom due to this specific trader behavior. This is not a long-term investment strategy.
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Episode Description
This week, we discuss what's next for markets as crypto tries to form a bottom. We deep dive into Trump's Fed chair appointment, is it time to squeeze the bears, ASTER vs Hyperliquid, how to be long AI, the 1000x terminal and more. Enjoy! – Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes! Spotify: https://bit.ly/4676Sob Apple: https://bit.ly/4etlBMd – Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh – Kraken offers crypto margin trading to qualified U.S. clients through Kraken Pro. Access up to 10x leverage on supported pairs. Built-in risk tools, unified account experience, and deep liquidity from a platform trusted for over 14 years. Learn more: https://www.kraken.com/en-ca/features/margin-trading Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers (excluding NY and ME) through Payward Interactive, Inc. View legal disclosures at kraken.com/legal/disclosures. Availability of margin trading services is subject to certain limitations and eligibility criteria. Trading using margin involves an element of risk and may not be suitable for everyone. Read Kraken's Margin Disclosure Statement to learn more. – peaq, the Machine Economy Computer, proudly sponsors the 1000x podcast. peaq is home to 60+ apps across 20+ industries and millions of onchain devices, machines, and robots. It powers the world’s first tokenized robo-farm in Hong Kong and has launched the Machine Economy Free Zone in Dubai as an innovation hub for Web3, Robotics, and AI. For more about peaq, check out www.peaq.xyz – Katana directs chain revenue back to DeFi users for consistently higher yields. It starts with VaultBridge, which turns bridged assets into yield streams that back a perpetually funded real yield, boosting rewards for DeFi users. Katana is pioneering Productive TVL, assets actually being used in DeFi and reinforces this with Chain-owned Liquidity, permanent liquidity the chain controls. Stop sleeping on your bags: https://app.katana.network/?utm_source=BW-Pod -- Timestamps: (00:00) intro (01:00) Have We Bottomed? (07:49) Will Trump Announce A Fed Chair In 2025? (11:04) Ads (Kraken OTC, Peaq) (12:20) Time To Squeeze The Bears? (20:02)  Is ASTER A Buy? (33:57) Ads (Kraken OTC, Peaq, Katana) (35:52) Can ASTER Compete with Hyperliquid? (41:09) How To Be Long AI (01:03:04) The 1000x Terminal -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed
About 1000x
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By Blockworks

1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg. We bring on experts to dive deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. As an increasing share of economic activity and attention migrates online, tokenomics and price action is increasingly relevant to everyone. If you’re interested in the future of markets and crypto, this show is for you.