• Consider Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term, macro-driven investment if you believe government money creation could support crypto; the discussion gives no price target or entry date.
• Treat Zcash (ZEC) as a speculative privacy-focused watchlist idea, and reassess only if its cited technical concerns are resolved.
• Avoid treating Flop Network (FLop) as an investable opportunity yet: it is early-stage, with no launch details or token availability provided.
• Be cautious about heavily investing in AI companies based on growth expectations alone; the insights highlight concerns about compute costs and profitability but name no specific stock trades.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Hayes said 90%-plus of his net worth is in crypto, including Bitcoin, while also holding some real estate, gold, stocks, and T-bills.
• He sees Bitcoin as a potential beneficiary if governments respond to financial stress by printing money or bailing out AI companies. He described his own position as long Bitcoin, while saying he does not know when broader debt-related pressures will come to a head.
• Hayes estimated there was a 75% probability that major AI companies would be unable to meet their compute commitments without a government bailout, potentially within the next year. He argued that such a bailout would benefit crypto.
• He presented financial markets as a long-term allocation opportunity, rather than emphasizing short-term trading.

Takeaways

• The bullish case discussed for Bitcoin is primarily macroeconomic: Hayes expects continued money creation and believes this could support crypto.
• This is a highly concentrated personal approach, not a broadly diversified allocation recommendation. The transcript gives no Bitcoin price target or specific buying timeline.

Cryptocurrency Market

• Hayes said he and his firm, Maelstrom, generally run a directional, long-only book, with speculative positions typically held for one to six months.
• He described crypto derivatives as increasingly influential, noting that perpetual swaps pioneered by BitMEX have been adopted across the crypto industry and are drawing interest from traditional finance.
• Hayes said he is glad BitMEX is no longer holding customer funds, citing the responsibility of safeguarding large amounts of assets. He said the exchange shut down after a long run in which it had not lost customer funds.

Takeaways

• The discussion supports a broad view that crypto markets and derivatives are becoming more established, but it does not identify specific exchanges as investment recommendations.
• Hayes favors directional positions over very short-term trading; the transcript does not provide a specific portfolio allocation for general investors.

Zcash (ZEC)

• Hayes said he likes Zcash’s privacy narrative and noted that Maelstrom is an investor in Zotel, which he described as a leading Zcash application.
• He also mentioned concerns around minting and said formal verification was expected to make its way into the protocol in Q4 of the year being discussed. The transcript does not establish the calendar year or confirm that this occurred.

Takeaways

• The investment thesis discussed centers on demand for privacy and potential improvements to the protocol.
• Hayes specifically acknowledged technical issues, so investors following Zcash would need to assess whether those concerns are resolved. No price target or purchase recommendation was given.

Flop Network (FLop)

• Hayes said he is building the Flop Network, a proposed payments network for AI agents. Its planned token, Flop, would be used to pay for computing resources.
• In the proposed model, GPU providers would supply computing capacity and perform AI inference, earning Flop through block rewards and transaction fees.
• Hayes argued that AI agents could hold Flop because it would be directly connected to the computing resources they need. He suggested the network could become extremely valuable if AI agents grow substantially in number and use.
• He said he started the project with a former BitMEX colleague and another longtime associate, and that AI agents are helping the team build it.

Takeaways

• Flop is an early-stage project thesis, not an established investment opportunity in the transcript. No launch details, token price, or availability were provided.
• The proposed value depends on AI agents using the network and on the network successfully connecting its token to computing capacity; Hayes presented this as a large potential opportunity, not a proven outcome.

AI Companies and Infrastructure

• Hayes was bearish on AI stocks and current AI-sector investment economics, arguing that large amounts of capital are being spent on data centers and computing capacity without sufficient customer revenue.
• He named OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX as major participants in frontier AI development and argued that they were not making money. He cited Anthropic’s reported $3 in costs for every $1 of revenue in 2025 and said OpenAI and Anthropic might need $50 billion to $100 billion in debt sales annually to fund their operations.
• Hayes did not argue that AI lacks value. He said AI could be very useful, but that customers may not be willing to pay enough to make the current business models profitable.
• He also argued that data-center construction costs could rise due to shortages of materials and labor, even as computing becomes cheaper. In his view, this creates a mismatch between the cost of building capacity and the declining price of the service.
• Hayes said he was not betting against AI companies. Instead, he believes they may be bailed out because their commitments are large and economically interconnected with hardware suppliers and other parts of the global economy.
• He said a bailout would likely benefit crypto, particularly Bitcoin.

Takeaways

• The distinction in Hayes’s view is between AI’s potential usefulness and the profitability of companies investing heavily in it. His criticism is aimed at current economics and valuations, not the technology’s long-term utility.
• The specific risks he raised were weak customer economics, high compute commitments, rising infrastructure costs, and the possibility that demand will not support contracted spending.
• OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX were discussed as companies, but the transcript did not provide a specific publicly traded AI stock recommendation or a price target.

Real Estate, Gold, T-Bills, and Other Stocks

• Hayes said he holds some real estate, gold, random stocks, and T-bills alongside his heavily crypto-weighted assets, describing them as holdings that would leave him with resources even if crypto went to zero.
• The conversation also referenced the S&P 500 and U.S. government efforts to encourage investing. Hayes questioned whether small investment contributions would materially address problems such as rising housing and living costs.

Takeaways

• These assets were mentioned as parts of Hayes’s personal holdings, not as specific recommendations or as investments with stated return expectations.
• The transcript gives no preferred stock tickers, allocation guidance, or price targets for these traditional assets.