Qwerty: Best Trading Advice, Cupsey Effect, $PUMP Trade | TG Podcast
3 hours agothreadguy@notthreadguy
YouTube30 min 42 sec
Quick Insights

The crypto token $KIDA is presented as a top long-term investment for the current market cycle, with a potential target of a $1 billion market cap. For a shorter-term contrarian trade, $FART is considered an overlooked meme coin that could rally soon after its recent consolidation. Investors seeking crypto exposure through the stock market can consider SharkLink Gaming (SBET), whose value is closely tied to its large treasury of Ethereum (ETH). The ideal condition for these alternative assets to perform well is when Bitcoin (BTC) stabilizes, allowing capital to flow into the broader crypto market. Be cautious with unproven narratives like "streamer coins," as their ability to provide long-term value to holders is questionable.

Detailed Analysis

SharkLink Gaming (SBET)

  • The speaker mentioned this was their biggest stock trade in the last month, resulting in a gain of over 100%.
  • The trade was initiated as a copy trade of another investor who the speaker respects, despite it being that investor's first-ever stock purchase.
  • The primary bullish reason cited was that SharkLink Gaming became the number one holder of Ethereum (ETH) among public companies, which occurred shortly after the speaker invested.
  • The speaker's position was a spot purchase (buying the stock directly), not options, based on a strong bullish conviction.

Takeaways

  • SBET is presented as a stock with a strong crypto-related catalyst. Its value is tied to its significant holdings of Ethereum.
  • Investors interested in this stock should monitor its ETH treasury as a key performance indicator. The investment thesis here is a belief in the future value of Ethereum, accessed through a traditional stock.

Pump.fun ($PUMP)

  • The speaker holds a seven-figure position in $PUMP, purchased entirely as a spot holding.
  • The original investment thesis is described as getting "a little shaky" due to two main factors:
    • Founder's Silence: The founder, known as Alan, has been very quiet, which is causing uncertainty among investors.
    • Competition from Bonk.fun: A competing platform, Bonk.fun, is seen as "dominating" by attracting the majority of new coin creators and deployers. The Bonk team is described as an "army of the best bag workers," creating a strong ecosystem.
  • Despite the concerns, a bullish case remains:
    • Alan built a custom platform called Pump Swap instead of relying on existing infrastructure like Raydium. This suggests he has long-term plans for the project.
  • The current price action is described as a "jeet shake," a term for a volatile period intended to shake out less confident investors.

Takeaways

  • The investment case for $PUMP is now a high-risk, high-reward play heavily dependent on the founder's next moves.
  • Positive Catalyst: Any significant announcement or new feature from the founder could cause a rapid price increase. The speaker notes Alan could "tweet one thing and it could like wick to eighth right now."
  • Key Risk: The primary risk is the continued loss of market share to its main competitor, Bonk.fun. Investors should monitor the activity and volume on both platforms to gauge which is winning the platform war.
  • This is viewed as a potential longer-term trade rather than a quick flip, given the need for the founder to execute on a larger vision.

Kida ($KIDA)

  • The speaker is still holding a large position with significant unrealized gains, referring to it as their "baby these last few months."
  • This is their highest conviction crypto trade, calling it their "number one trade for the rest of the cycle."
  • An original price target of a $1 billion market cap was mentioned for the token.
  • It is also highlighted as an underrated trade currently, as it was one of the only coins performing well a month ago but has been consolidating recently.

Takeaways

  • $KIDA is presented as a high-conviction, long-term hold for the remainder of the current crypto bull market.
  • The speaker's bullishness remains despite recent sideways or negative price action, suggesting they see the current phase as a buying opportunity before the next move up.
  • Investors looking at $KIDA would be aligning with a thesis that it has the potential for significant growth, aiming for the previously mentioned $1 billion market cap target.

Fartcoin ($FART)

  • The speaker identifies $FART as a potentially underrated trade right now.
  • The thesis is that market attention has shifted to other meme coins that are currently making new highs (like $BONK, $MOG), leaving $FART behind.
  • Because it is no longer a "consensus" trade and is in a consolidation phase, the speaker believes "it's going to blast soon."

Takeaways

  • This is a contrarian play. The investment idea is to buy an asset that is currently being overlooked by the market in anticipation of a future rally.
  • Investors could see the current consolidation in $FART as an entry point before a potential "blast" upward, assuming the speaker's analysis that it's simply lagging the market is correct.

Investment Themes & Market Outlook

  • On-Chain Trading is Back: The speaker believes that after a multi-month lull, on-chain crypto trading is active again due to better prices and volume. They feel it is a good time to be active in the market.
  • Identifying Narratives is Key: The most important skill for a trader is the ability to quickly identify and build a thesis around new market narratives before the crowd does.
  • Bitcoin's Role: The broader crypto market's direction depends on Bitcoin (BTC). The ideal scenario for altcoins ("alt season") is for Bitcoin to stabilize or "stall out," allowing capital to flow into other assets like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).
  • Streamer Coins: The speaker expressed skepticism about the "streamer coin" narrative.
    • Concern: It's unclear how these tokens provide long-term value to holders, even if the streamer becomes very successful. The core question is how a creator can "deliver value to his holders" beyond a temporary pump from attention.
    • Takeaway: This is presented as a speculative and unproven narrative. Investors should be cautious and question the long-term utility and value accrual for these types of tokens.
Video Description
Interview with Qwerty, a legendary trader! 🔴Follow My Socials: Twitter: https://x.com/notthreadguy Twitch: https://twitch.tv/threadguy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/threadguyy/
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By @notthreadguy

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Qwerty: Best Trading Advice, Cupsey Effect, $PUMP Trade | TG Podcast - threadguy | Kazuha