The AI & Semiconductor Trade

This sector is experiencing significant bullish momentum, largely driven by strong earnings from key players in the supply chain. The discussion suggests that the demand for AI infrastructure is not slowing down.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)

  • The company "absolutely demolished earnings," leading to a surge in positive sentiment across the semiconductor sector.
  • Reported 40% year-over-year revenue growth and 60% year-over-year EPS growth.
  • The CEO was very bullish on the earnings call, stating that demand from AI is "getting stronger and stronger" and that the company's only issue is supply, not demand.
  • Takeaway: TSM is a critical part of the semiconductor supply chain. Its outstanding performance is seen as a strong indicator that the entire AI ecosystem, including companies like NVIDIA and AMD, is healthy and continuing to grow rapidly.

• NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • The stock was trading higher, trying to break $173 and later hitting a new all-time high of $174, directly because of TSM's strong report.
  • Takeaway: The host believes NVIDIA's upcoming earnings will be "great" because TSM's results show that demand for AI chips is not slowing down. Positive news from a key supplier like TSM de-risks NVIDIA's outlook.

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

  • The stock was also trading higher in the pre-market, trying to break $161, as a direct result of TSM's earnings.
  • Takeaway: Like NVIDIA, AMD is seen as a direct beneficiary of the strong demand signal from TSM.

• Micron (MU)

  • The stock was down, which the host attributes to two factors: negative sentiment from ASML's earnings and a Goldman Sachs downgrade of a competitor, SK Hynix.
  • There are concerns about the supply for memory being higher than demand.
  • Takeaway: While the company's recent earnings were "insane," the market is currently focused on potential headwinds in the memory sector. The host notes this might be an overreaction, as GPUs still require a lot of memory, but acknowledges the short-term bearish sentiment.

• ASML (ASML)

  • The company had "crappy guidance," which caused a drop in its stock and had a ripple effect on other hardware companies like Micron.
  • The podcast guest analyst believes the market is overreacting and this could be a "buy the dip moment." The weakness was attributed to reduced backlog from export restrictions and a more conservative tone on 2026 growth.
  • Takeaway: ASML is a critical, monopolistic player in the semiconductor supply chain. The guest analyst believes that despite short-term uncertainty and conservative guidance, the long-term growth story is intact as companies like TSM and Intel will need their machines for new fabs. This is viewed as a potential long-term opportunity.

Palantir (PLTR)

• The stock was trading at all-time highs, hitting $152 in the pre-market and later breaking $154.
• The host views Palantir as a "software derivative" of the AI hardware boom; if demand for AI compute is strong (as shown by TSM), then demand for AI software should also be strong.
• A new partnership was announced with Velocity Clinical Research to use Palantir's AI to solve issues with clinical trial payments and invoices.
• The host believes it's "becoming obvious that every single company on the planet will need something like Palantir."
• The high valuation is acknowledged (115 times sales), but the bullish case is based on qualitative factors like its unique market position and massive growth potential.

Takeaways

• Palantir's stock momentum is closely tied to the broader AI theme. Positive news from hardware companies like TSM is seen as a bullish signal for Palantir.
• The company continues to announce new partnerships in diverse sectors like healthcare, expanding its Total Addressable Market (TAM).
• This is a high-growth, high-valuation stock. The investment thesis is not based on traditional valuation metrics but on the belief that it can become a foundational operating system for modern enterprises.

Robinhood (HOOD)

• The stock showed strong momentum, breaking through key levels of $104, $105, and $106.
• A major potential catalyst mentioned is the company's future inclusion in the S&P 500, which would force index funds to buy the stock.
• The host highlighted a clip of CEO Vlad Tenev embracing the pressure of being a public company, viewing this as the "mentality of a winner."
• The host sold his shares in competitor Webull (WEBL) to buy more Robinhood, believing it has a much stronger competitive position.

Takeaways

• Robinhood is benefiting from strong retail market participation and volatility in crypto and meme stocks.
• The potential for S&P 500 inclusion is a significant upcoming catalyst that could drive the price higher due to forced buying from large funds.
• The leadership's confidence and the company's strong market position relative to competitors are key parts of the bullish thesis.

Cryptocurrencies & Related Equities

The discussion highlights a significant shift, with "Wall Street embracing Ethereum," a cryptocurrency that had been "left for dead" by institutions.

• Ethereum (ETH)

  • The price crossed $3,400, showing strong momentum.
  • The host is planning a "deep dive" episode on Ethereum, featuring prominent experts, indicating a belief in its long-term thesis.
  • Takeaway: Institutional adoption is a powerful new catalyst for Ethereum. The host suggests that this institutionalization might prevent the kind of 75% collapses seen in previous crypto cycles.

• Ethereum Treasuries (e.g., SBET, BMNR)

  • These stocks, which hold Ethereum on their balance sheets, are experiencing high volatility.
  • Big news for BMNR (Tom Lee's company): they now hold $1 billion of ETH (300,000 ETH), which is more than competitor SBET (280,000 ETH).
  • Takeaway: These are leveraged ways to invest in Ethereum. The news about BMNR's holdings makes it a more formidable player in the space. Investors should expect significant price swings that correlate with, but can be more extreme than, the price of Ethereum.

• Bitcoin Treasuries (e.g., VLCN)

  • A small-cap company called Volcon (VLCN), which makes UTVs and motorcycles, announced it was initiating a $500 million Bitcoin treasury.
  • The company's market cap was only $5 million before the announcement, and the stock surged over 300%.
  • Takeaway: This is an example of the "frothy" and "2021-ish" behavior in some corners of the market. While it reflects the bullish trend of companies adding crypto to their balance sheets, investing in a micro-cap company making such a move is extremely high-risk.

High-Momentum & Speculative Plays

• Rocket Lab (RKLB)

  • The stock has seen a "massive move," breaking through $50, $51, $52, and $53.
  • Bank of America and Citigroup were mentioned as having $50 price targets, which the stock has now surpassed.
  • Takeaway: The space sector is hot, and Rocket Lab is a key beneficiary. The stock has strong momentum, and the host speculates that $50 may become a new floor rather than a ceiling.

• Opendoor (OPEN)

  • The stock is extremely volatile, hitting $2.20 in the pre-market before falling back to the $1.60-$1.80 range.
  • There is massive retail momentum, with a meme of "Opendoor to $82."
  • A Wall Street Bets bull case was summarized, focusing on financial stability, a new business model (buying homes below market value), and a potential short squeeze.
  • The host remains highly skeptical, citing the company's historically poor gross margins and inability to make a profit even in a booming housing market.
  • Takeaway: This is a highly speculative, high-risk trade driven by retail momentum. While there is a turnaround narrative, the underlying business fundamentals have been weak. Investors should be extremely cautious.

• Lucid (LCID)

  • The stock was up over 30% on news that Uber is investing $300 million for a partnership to build robo-taxis.
  • The host is skeptical of the partnership's success, calling it a "desperate" move from Uber and noting Lucid's poor track record of execution.
  • Takeaway: The news is a short-term bullish catalyst for Lucid's stock. However, the bigger insight is that it validates the massive potential of the robo-taxi market, which is seen as a long-term positive for the perceived leader, Tesla.

Other Notable Stocks & Themes

• Grab (GRAB)

  • The stock showed strength, closing above $5.10 and trading near $5.30.
  • A key bullish development was mentioned: two of Grab's competitors in Malaysia (Maxim and Indrive) are being forced to cease operations for regulatory non-compliance.
  • Takeaway: This news strongly supports the host's long-term thesis that Grab will win through regional consolidation. As weaker competitors are eliminated, Grab's market share and path to higher profitability should improve. This is presented as a more stable, long-term investment.

• Joby Aviation (JOBY)

  • The stock is seeing strong, "legit" momentum, not just meme-stock hype.
  • The bullish momentum is backed by fundamental progress: a Toyota investment, doubling of manufacturing capacity, and a recent successful flight test.
  • Takeaway: Joby is making tangible progress in the eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) space, and the market is rewarding its execution.

• United Airlines (UAL)

  • The stock was up over 5% after reporting good earnings.
  • Despite issues at its Newark hub, the company's guidance was solid, which the market interpreted as very positive.
  • Takeaway: Strong performance from airlines like United indicates that consumer spending on travel is healthy. This is a bullish sign for the overall economy and consumer health.

• Shopify (SHOP)

  • The stock was up significantly for the week.
  • The momentum is attributed to a Financial Times report about a potential checkout integration with OpenAI's ChatGPT.
  • Takeaway: This potential partnership is a major new catalyst. It would allow users to purchase products directly through ChatGPT, with Shopify handling the checkout, potentially revolutionizing e-commerce search and discovery.

• Unity (U)

  • The stock was up 32% in five days, a major breakout.
  • The move was driven by a bullish note from Morgan Stanley, which highlighted the growth potential of Unity's advertising business.
  • Takeaway: After a period of poor performance, Unity is seeing renewed interest from Wall Street based on the strength of its non-gaming business segments.