Smac: How To Make It, AI Girlfriends, Market Uncertainty | TG Podcast - threadguy

Bitcoin (BTC)

The speaker expresses long-term bullishness, using a hypothetical future price of $120K as an example of how far Bitcoin has come and how unbelievable its growth has been.
The launch of Bitcoin ETFs is seen as a major validating event, allowing the general public to gain exposure through traditional investment vehicles like 401ks. This has helped lift the "social stink" of being involved in crypto.
The speaker believes that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC's market share of the total crypto market) has likely peaked for now. This is often seen as a signal that capital is about to flow from Bitcoin into other cryptocurrencies (altcoins).
While still bullish, the speaker expects Bitcoin to "drift higher" rather than experiencing explosive, volatile moves in the near term.
It's noted that outperforming Bitcoin over the long term is extremely difficult, even for professional venture capital funds.

Bitcoin is viewed as a foundational "store of value" asset in a portfolio, but its period of strongest relative performance in this cycle may be temporarily over.
The topping of Bitcoin Dominance suggests that investors looking for higher returns in the short-to-medium term might consider allocating some capital to promising altcoins.
The ETH/BTC chart is seen as having bottomed, which could mean Ethereum may outperform Bitcoin in the coming weeks or months.

The primary discussion point is the ETH/BTC trading pair, which the speaker believes has finally bottomed after a downtrend that lasted nearly three years.
This bottoming is considered a significant bullish catalyst, not just for ETH, but for the broader altcoin market.
The speaker notes the irony of long-time ETH bulls finally being right after years of calling for a bottom.

The potential reversal in the ETH/BTC chart is a strong signal that Ethereum could be poised to outperform Bitcoin.
Investors might consider this a key indicator for the start of a broader "alt season." A position in ETH could be seen as a lower-risk way to get exposure to this potential market rotation.

The speaker is confident that an "alt season" is coming, driven by the peak in Bitcoin Dominance and the bottoming of the ETH/BTC chart.
The potential duration for this alt season is estimated to be anywhere from a "couple of weeks" to an optimistic "two months."
The strategy for identifying promising altcoins is to find ones that are showing relative strength against Bitcoin. The process involves charting numerous coins against BTC to see which ones look the strongest.

There is a potential short-term opportunity to generate alpha by rotating capital from Bitcoin into a diversified basket of altcoins.
Actionable Strategy: Investors could screen for altcoins whose charts look strong when priced in BTC (e.g., SOL/BTC, not just SOL/USD). This helps identify assets that are outperforming the market leader.
Sectors of interest mentioned include DeFi (Decentralized Finance).

This theme refers to publicly traded companies whose primary strategy is to hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum on their balance sheets.
The speaker predicts a wave of these companies will go public via IPOs, similar to the SPAC boom of 2021.
There is a strong sense of long-term skepticism. The model is described with the phrase, "you can't put a dollar into a box and pull out like two dollars."
An "inevitable collapse" of this model is expected eventually.
However, in the short term, this is viewed as a powerful narrative trade that could "violently go up for probably longer than you think" before cascading down.

This is a high-risk, purely speculative narrative trade.
Investors could potentially profit from the initial hype and IPOs in this sector, but it should be treated as a short-term momentum trade, not a long-term investment.
A clear exit strategy is crucial due to the high likelihood of an eventual bust, similar to what happened with most SPACs.

Hyperliquid is highlighted as a prime example of how significant "edge" still exists in crypto for those willing to be early adopters.
Early users and angel investors of the platform were able to get "super rich off the airdrop."
The speaker strongly refutes the idea that the edge from using new products is gone, stating that because so few people are actively using new on-chain applications, the opportunity remains massive.
Using a product like Hyperliquid builds deep conviction, making it easier to hold through market volatility and ignore FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) from those who haven't used it.

One of the most effective ways to "make it" in crypto is to actively use new products and protocols on-chain.
This strategy, often called "airdrop farming," can be highly lucrative, as projects often reward their earliest users with valuable tokens.
Beyond potential financial rewards, being an active user provides a deep, fundamental understanding of which projects are genuinely innovative and useful, which is an invaluable investment edge.

Solana is mentioned as a case study of a massive winning trade.
The speaker notes that an investor could have simply made the right call on Solana and a couple of other major themes and outperformed almost everyone else, without needing to trade constantly.
This highlights the power of identifying and committing to high-conviction macro trades.

Power-law returns exist in crypto. Focusing research on identifying the next one or two major narratives or platforms (like Solana was) can be a more effective strategy than frequent, low-conviction trading.
The success of SOL demonstrates the importance of being early to promising ecosystems and holding with conviction.

Angel investing is described as a "really expensive hobby" and should be approached with extreme caution, especially for newly successful traders.
It's recommended to treat any money put into angel deals as "tuition"—an expense for learning and growing your network, with the assumption that you will likely not make money.
Many VCs and angel investors fail to do the proper math on valuation, dilution, and potential outcomes, leading to poor returns.

If you've recently made significant money trading crypto, reinvesting it into illiquid angel deals is very risky and likely not the best way to grow your capital.
If you do decide to angel invest, do it with a small portion of your capital that you are fully prepared to lose. Focus on deals where you understand the technology and can potentially add value, rather than just writing checks to friends.
Remember that venture investments take 5-10 years to play out, a much longer timeline than typical crypto trades.