AG Dillon & Co Pre-IPO Funds

• The firm is offering six single-stock, pre-IPO funds focused on high-profile private companies, closing in September 2025.
• The funds provide exposure to:
  • Anduril (Defense Tech)
  • XAI (AI)
  • Grok (AI)
  • Lambda Labs (AI Infrastructure)
  • Together AI (AI)
  • A Space Economy Company
• These funds are designed for financial advisors to build custom pre-IPO portfolios for their clients.
• They are available through platforms like Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Direction with a $2,500 minimum investment.

Takeaways

• This is an investment vehicle for accredited investors (via their financial advisors) to gain direct exposure to specific, highly sought-after private technology companies before they potentially go public.
• It allows for a "bespoke" or customized approach, where an investor can choose which of these companies to invest in and in what proportion, rather than buying into a broad, diversified venture fund.

Anthropic

• Valuation & Funding: The AI company is exploring a new funding round that could value it at over $100 billion.
  • This is a significant increase from its previous $61.5 billion valuation.
  • The company has received unsolicited offers at valuations north of $100 billion.
  • The current secondary market (private trading) valuation is $77 billion. A new $100 billion round would represent a nearly 30% increase from this price.
• Financials & Growth: The company is experiencing explosive growth.
  • Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) quadrupled from $1 billion at the start of 2025 to $4 billion by July 2025.
  • Gross margin is strong at 60% and is projected to expand to 70%.
  • The company is seeing 300% year-over-year growth.
• Product & Market Position:
  • Anthropic has launched Claude for Financial Services, a new tool suite for investment professionals, integrating data from sources like PitchBook, S&P Global, and FactSet.
  • It holds a 3.4% market share in the generative AI market.
  • Key investors include Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Salesforce.

Takeaways

• Bullish Sentiment: Anthropic is presented as a top-tier AI player with exceptional growth metrics that are attracting massive investor interest at rapidly increasing valuations.
• New Growth Driver: The launch of specialized tools for the financial sector could open up a significant and lucrative new market, further accelerating revenue growth.
• Investment Consideration: While the valuation is high, the company's performance (quadrupling ARR in about seven months) is a powerful indicator of its strong market position and technological edge. It is a formidable competitor to OpenAI and Google.

Thinking Machines

• Valuation & Funding: This new AI company raised a historic $2 billion seed round at a $12 billion valuation just five months after its founding in February 2025.
  • This is the largest seed financing round in Silicon Valley history.
  • The company currently has no products or revenue.
• Team & Leadership:
  • Founded by Mary Marotti, the former Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of OpenAI.
  • The 30-person team includes top talent from OpenAI, Meta, and Mistral AI.
  • Backed by a roster of top-tier investors, including Andreessen Horowitz, NVIDIA, AMD, and Cisco.
• Strategy: The company plans to debut its first product by September 2025 and has secured a partnership with Google Cloud.

Takeaways

• High-Risk, High-Reward "Team Bet": The investment thesis is not based on current performance but on the stellar reputation and track record of its founder and team. Investors are betting that this all-star team can create the next groundbreaking AI model.
• Key Catalyst Ahead: The planned product launch in September 2025 is a critical event. Its success or failure will be a major determinant of whether the company can live up to its massive initial valuation.

OpenEvidence

• Valuation & Funding: The AI-powered medical assistant platform closed a $210 million funding round in July 2025, reaching a $3.5 billion valuation.
  • This valuation is more than triple its $1 billion valuation from a funding round in February 2025.
  • Lead investors include Google Ventures and Kleiner Perkins, with Sequoia Capital also participating.
• Traction & User Base: The platform has achieved significant adoption within the medical community.
  • It is used by over 40% of U.S. physicians, with more than 440,000 users.
  • User growth is over 2,000% year-over-year.
  • It processes 8.5 million medical consultations monthly.
• Product: The HIPAA-compliant tool provides doctors with quick, evidence-based answers. It recently introduced Deep Consult, an AI agent for advanced medical research.

Takeaways

• Strong Product-Market Fit: OpenEvidence is solving a clear problem for a large professional market, leading to rapid and widespread adoption.
• High Investor Confidence: The rapid and substantial increase in valuation, backed by premier venture capital firms, signals strong belief in the company's future growth and market dominance in the medical AI space.

Xtend

• Funding & Focus: The drone technology company has raised a total of $100 million, including a recent $30 million infusion.
• Strategic Positioning: Xtend focuses on U.S.-manufactured, NDAA-compliant drones for defense and public safety.
  • This strategy is designed to mitigate reliance on Chinese components, which dominate the global market.
  • The company recently opened a new manufacturing facility in Tampa, Florida to serve the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD).
• Market Validation: The company's technology is battle-tested.
  • It has an $8.8 million contract with the U.S. DoD.
  • Its drones have been used extensively by the Israeli Defense Forces (over 100,000 missions) and are being used by Ukrainian forces.

Takeaways

• Geopolitical Play: Xtend is an investment in the theme of onshoring critical defense technology. Its U.S. manufacturing and compliance make it a preferred supplier for U.S. government and military contracts.
• Proven Technology: Real-world combat use by Israeli and Ukrainian forces provides powerful validation of the drones' effectiveness and reliability, giving it a competitive edge.

Cognition

• Strategic Move: The AI coding assistant company acquired the intellectual property, brand, and over 200 employees of a competitor, Windsurf.
• Market Context: The acquisition strengthens Cognition's position in a highly competitive market against rivals like GitHub Copilot (backed by Microsoft) and Cursor.
  • The deal occurred after Google had "aqua-hired" Windsurf's CEO and top researchers, leaving the rest of the company available for Cognition to absorb.
• Company Profile: Cognition, creator of the Devon AI agent, is well-funded and was last valued at $4 billion in March 2025.

Takeaways

• Strategic Consolidation: This is a smart tactical move by Cognition to quickly acquire talent and technology, bolstering its ability to compete with tech giants in the burgeoning AI software development market.
• Market Growth: The transcript notes a forecast that AI agents could manage 20% of all coding by 2026, highlighting the massive potential market size that Cognition and its competitors are targeting.

Via Transportation

• IPO Status: The ride-sharing company has submitted a confidential S-1 draft filing to the SEC, indicating it is officially on the path to an Initial Public Offering (IPO).
• Business Model: Unlike consumer-focused apps like Uber, Via partners with cities and transit agencies (over 650 globally) to provide on-demand public transit solutions.
• Financials: The company projects $326 million in revenue for 2025 and is backed by institutional investors like BlackRock and Janus Henderson.

Takeaways

• Upcoming Public Market Opportunity: Investors will soon have a chance to invest in a "transit-tech" company through its IPO.
• Differentiation: Via's business-to-government (B2G) model may offer more stable, contract-based revenue streams compared to the highly competitive consumer ride-sharing market. Keep an eye out for the public S-1 filing, which will reveal detailed financials.

Polymarket

• Regulatory Update: The prediction market platform has resolved investigations from the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) with "no action letters."
• Business Impact: This news removes a significant legal and regulatory risk that was hanging over the company.
• Traction: The platform is seeing significant volume, having processed $3.6 billion in wagers on the 2024 U.S. election and experiencing 30% year-over-year growth in sports betting volume.

Takeaways

• Significant De-Risking Event: The positive resolution with U.S. regulators is a major bullish catalyst, potentially paving the way for greater mainstream adoption, partnerships, and growth without the fear of a government shutdown.

XAI

• Government & Enterprise Traction: Elon Musk's AI company secured a contract worth up to $200 million with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD).
  • This contract is for prototyping advanced AI and puts XAI in the same league as Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI as a key government supplier.
• Infrastructure Ambitions: The company is pursuing a major deal to use a massive, state-backed Saudi Arabian data center, signaling its need for immense computing power to train future models.
• Valuation: XAI currently has a $121 billion valuation in the secondary (private) market.

Takeaways

• Major Validation: The DoD contract is a powerful endorsement of XAI's technology and its ability to compete for large, lucrative enterprise and government deals.
• Scaling for the Future: The pursuit of a massive data center deal underscores the company's ambition to be a leader in the AI race, as access to vast amounts of computing power is a key competitive advantage.

Scale AI

• Business Challenges: The data labeling company is facing significant turmoil.
  • It laid off 14% of its full-time staff (200 roles) and 500 contractors.
  • The layoffs were attributed to overhiring and the loss of key clients, specifically named as Google and OpenAI.
• Investor & Talent Drain: Meta recently invested in Scale AI but also hired away its CEO and several top engineers.
• Valuation Risk: The speaker expresses a strong bearish sentiment.
  • He states he "wouldn't be surprised to see this valuation drop to below $10 billion in a few months."
  • The current secondary market valuation is $26.6 billion.

Takeaways

• Bearish Outlook & High Risk: The company is in a period of significant distress, marked by layoffs, customer churn, and a leadership drain.
• Valuation Warning: There is a specific warning that the current private market valuation is likely inflated and could see a dramatic correction downwards. Investors should be extremely cautious, as the company's fundamentals appear to be weakening.