Cheap Stocks Get Cheaper! Delcath (DCTH), BioStem (BSEM) & CorMedix (CRMD). Should We PANIC?! Sell?!
1 day agoBeat The Denominator@BeatTheDenominator
YouTube24 min 29 sec
Quick Insights

The recent 30% drop in CorMedix (CRMD) presents a potential entry point, as its core business is growing at 180% with strong margins. For CRMD, the key is to watch the next earnings call for clarification on its recent $100 million capital raise. For higher risk tolerance, BioStem Technologies (BSEM) is an asymmetric bet trading for less than half its annual revenue. The future of BSEM hinges on a critical CMS reimbursement decision expected in October or November, which could result in a multi-bagger return or a significant loss. As a longer-term growth play, consider Delcath Systems (DCTH), which is viewed as a cheap stock with a significant runway as it expands its cancer treatment platform.

Detailed Analysis

Delcath Systems, Inc. (DCTH)

  • Recent Performance: The stock has seen a recent dip but is still up 41% over the past year. The speaker believes the recent downturn is part of a broader "basket selling" trend in the healthcare sector, not a problem specific to Delcath.
  • Core Product: Delcath has an FDA-approved catheter system that delivers highly targeted chemotherapy to specific organs. It is currently approved for a rare and difficult-to-treat liver cancer.
  • Growth Strategy: The product is a platform technology. The company is actively investing in Research & Development (R&D) to expand its use for other cancers, including metastatic colorectal cancer and metastatic breast cancer.
    • The speaker views the high R&D spending as a positive investment in future growth, not a drag on current profits.
  • Market Opportunity: The speaker strongly disagrees with the idea that the current addressable market of 800 patients is too small.
    • With a treatment cost of $768,000, capturing this market could represent a 10x increase in revenue (to over $614 million).
    • Even capturing half of this market would result in a 5x revenue increase.
  • Valuation: The stock is considered very cheap based on its growth potential.
    • It trades at approximately 3x forward revenue and has a very high gross margin of 86%.

Takeaways

  • Investment Horizon: This is presented as a long-term hold. The success of the investment should be judged over several years as the company expands its product adoption and seeks approval for new cancer treatments.
  • Key Catalyst: The primary driver for the stock is the growth and adoption of its chemotherapy delivery system. Investors should monitor quarterly results (Q2 is the next key report) and news regarding the expansion of its platform to treat other cancers.
  • Sentiment: The speaker is bullish and not concerned by the recent price drop, seeing it as an opportunity given the company's long-term growth runway and cheap valuation.

BioStem Technologies (BSEM)

  • Recent Performance: The stock dropped 11% recently but has been a massive winner long-term, having 10x'd in the last five years.
  • Investment Profile: This is explicitly called a high-risk, high-reward investment.
  • Core Product: BioStem produces a wound care dressing (described as a "bandage") made from placentas.
    • This gives the company an exceptionally high gross margin of 96% because the primary raw material is obtained for free.
  • Extreme Valuation: The speaker calls this the cheapest stock they have ever featured.
    • It trades for half of its annual revenue (Price-to-Sales of 0.5) and a quarter of its projected future sales.
    • The enterprise value ($150M) is less than its expected revenue over the next six months.
  • Major Risk Factor: The recent price drop was caused by a CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services) proposal to cut spending on wound care.
    • There is a significant risk that BioStem could lose its eligibility for Medicare reimbursement on January 1, 2026. A decision is expected in October or November.
    • Losing reimbursement would be a major blow to the business.
  • Potential Catalysts:
    • NASDAQ Uplisting: The company is waiting for a clarification from the SEC on its revenue recognition policies. Once received, it can be uplisted from the OTC market to the NASDAQ. This would make the stock available to a much wider pool of investors (e.g., on Robinhood) and institutions.
    • Reimbursement Secured: If CMS decides to continue reimbursing BioStem's product past 2026, it would remove the largest risk hanging over the stock.
    • Other Opportunities: The company is generating significant cash that could be used to lobby, expand into international markets (e.g., the Muslim world, where non-pig-based products are preferred), or develop a stem cell business from its placenta collection system.

Takeaways

  • Asymmetric Bet: This is the core thesis. The stock could potentially go to zero if it loses Medicare reimbursement. However, if it secures reimbursement and gets a NASDAQ uplisting, the speaker believes it could be a 5x to 10x multi-bagger.
  • High Risk Tolerance Required: This is not a "safe" investment. It is a speculative bet on a binary outcome (reimbursement is either kept or lost). Investors should be prepared for the possibility of a total loss.
  • Key Dates: Watch for news from CMS in October/November regarding the 2026 reimbursement decision and any updates on the SEC clarification for the NASDAQ uplisting.

CorMedix Inc. (CRMD)

  • Recent Performance: The stock is up 122% in the past year. However, it recently dropped ~30% after a major positive announcement.
  • The "Weird" Event: The stock popped to ~$17/share after the company announced that the second-largest US dialysis organization was ramping up adoption of its product. Three days later, CorMedix announced it was raising ~$100 million through a stock offering, which caused the price to fall.
    • The speaker believes the timing was poor and that the initial price of $17 was the market's "right reaction" to the positive business news.
  • Core Product: CorMedix sells Defencath, a "solution lock" fluid for dialysis catheters. It is a simple vial of fluid that is used to fill the catheter tubes between dialysis sessions to prevent life-threatening bloodstream infections, reducing them by around 70%.
  • Strong Business Fundamentals:
    • The business is "firing on all cylinders" with a 180% growth rate and a 52% EBITDA margin.
    • The product saves the healthcare system money by preventing expensive hospitalizations, so CMS pays for it.
    • The large dialysis center customers (Fresenius and DaVita are implied) have a financial incentive to adopt the product to reduce infection rates.
  • The Big Question: The main uncertainty is why CorMedix is raising ~$100 million when it already has $78 million in cash and is generating positive cash flow.
    • Possible reasons include building a new manufacturing facility to meet massive demand or funding a strategic acquisition.

Takeaways

  • Opportunity in Confusion: The speaker views the 30% drop as a potential opportunity created by the market's confusion over the stock offering's timing, not a reflection of the underlying business, which is performing exceptionally well.
  • Focus on the "Why": The key for investors is to understand the reason for the large capital raise. This will likely be clarified on the company's next earnings call. The reason will determine the future trajectory of the company.
  • Sentiment: The speaker is bullish on the core business and views the recent drop as a disconnect from the company's strong operational performance and growth.
Video Description
Join Patreon for Exclusive Perks: https://www.patreon.com/btdenominator Beat The Denominator is a channel whose goal is to Beat the dollar's inflation (i.e., beat the denominator). Today, I am covering some of healthcare stocks that got cheaper recently, that is, Delcath (DCTH), BioStem (BSEM) & CorMedix (CRMD) and whether we should panic and sell! No Investment Advice EVER! As always, this video is NOT investment advice, and none of the contents should be construed as such. I do not make short-term or long-term price predictions for any stock investment, and all words spoken in this video are for entertainment purposes ONLY.
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