ASML Holding (ASML)

• The stock recently dropped 10% in a single day after its earnings report, despite the host viewing it as a very high-quality company with a dominant market position in the semiconductor industry.
• The host, a shareholder, believes the drop was not due to poor financial performance but rather a "narrative issue" related to future uncertainty.
• Strong Fundamentals: The company's Q2 earnings report was described as "very strong."
  • Revenue: Hit the high end of guidance at €7.7 billion, beating expectations. Overall revenue growth is above 15%.
  • Margins: Gross margins were 53.7%, which was above guidance.
  • Earnings: Beat earnings per share (EPS) estimates.
  • Capital Returns: The company is aggressively returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, totaling €1.4 billion in buybacks in Q2. They are using their large cash balance to buy back shares, especially during price drops.
• The "Critical Warning": The price drop was caused by a statement from the CEO regarding 2026.
  • The CEO stated, "while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage" due to "macroeconomic and geopolitical developments."
  • This uncertainty is primarily linked to potential US tariffs on the EU, which could create direct and indirect risks for ASML's business.
  • As a result, the company has withheld its official guidance for 2026.
  • However, guidance for 2025 remains strong, with revenue expected to be up 15% from 2024.

Takeaways

• The host sees the 10% drop as a potential overreaction to a "soft warning" from the CEO. The core business is performing exceptionally well, but the market is pricing in future geopolitical risk.
• This presents a classic fundamentals vs. narrative scenario. Long-term investors who believe the current business strength will outweigh the geopolitical uncertainty may see this as a buying opportunity at a better valuation.
• The company's aggressive share buyback program could provide price support and increase shareholder value, as the company is actively buying its own shares on dips like this one.
• The primary risk is that the threatened tariffs and trade disputes become a reality, which would validate the CEO's caution and negatively impact growth in 2026.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) & Goldman Sachs (GS)

• Both banks reported "great" and "very strong" earnings.
• Their stock performance has been excellent this year, with JPMorgan (JPM) up 19% and Goldman Sachs (GS) up 21% year-to-date, not including dividends.
• JPMorgan's business segments showed broad strength:
  • Consumer & Community Banking revenue: up 6% year-over-year.
  • Card Services & Auto revenue: up 15% year-over-year.
  • Asset & Wealth Management revenue: up 10% year-over-year.

Takeaways

• The largest US banks are performing incredibly well, indicating a healthy financial sector.
• The strong, diversified growth at a bellwether bank like JPMorgan suggests positive economic conditions for both consumers and businesses.
• Investors looking for exposure to the financial sector could see these strong results as a bullish signal for the industry.

Amazon (AMZN)

• The discussion focused on Project Kuiper, Amazon's satellite internet project, which is a direct competitor to SpaceX's Starlink.
• Amazon plans to begin offering the service to customers by late 2025.
• The service will have multiple tiers, with speeds up to an impressive 1 gigabit per second.
• Analysts see it as a "compelling opportunity" with the potential for strong long-term profit margins due to the high barriers to entry (massive cost).
• Key Synergies & Advantages:
  • AWS Integration: Project Kuiper can offer private, secure connectivity for its cloud clients.
  • Logistics Network: Amazon can use the network to better manage its own assets, including future delivery robots and drones in areas with poor connectivity.
  • Marketing Power: Amazon can market the service directly on its massive e-commerce platform and potentially bundle it with Amazon Prime.

Takeaways

• Project Kuiper represents a significant new, long-term growth driver for Amazon, placing it in a potential duopoly in the satellite internet market.
• This venture demonstrates Amazon's ability to invest in massive, long-term projects that can create new revenue streams and strengthen its existing businesses (AWS, logistics).
• For investors, this adds another layer to the Amazon growth story beyond its core e-commerce and cloud computing segments. The host believes it will be a revenue and profit-generating part of the company very soon.

Market & Macro Insights

• There was discussion around reports that President Trump might attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
• The host clarified that legally, the president cannot fire the Fed Chair. Jerome Powell himself has stated he would not leave if asked.
• President Trump has since publicly stated, "we're not planning on doing anything," walking back the immediate threat.
• The host believes that an actual attempt to oust the Fed Chair would be very bad for the markets and cause a "huge red day."

Takeaways

• While the immediate threat of firing the Fed Chair seems to have subsided, it highlights a significant political risk factor for the market.
• Any renewed instability or perceived political interference with the Federal Reserve's independence would likely lead to major market volatility. Investors should monitor this as a potential source of market-wide risk.