Altcoins (Alternative Cryptocurrencies)

• The primary topic of discussion is identifying the start of an "altcoin season," which is a period where alternative cryptocurrencies significantly outperform Bitcoin.
• The speaker states that currently, "we are nowhere close" to an altcoin season.
• The key metric to watch is Bitcoin Dominance, which measures Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market value. A falling Bitcoin Dominance is the main requirement for an altcoin season to begin.
• Two key technical indicators on the Bitcoin Dominance chart are highlighted as crucial signals:
  • Initial Sign: A daily timeframe drop below the 61.8% level for Bitcoin Dominance would be a good starting signal.
  • Major Confirmation: The most important signal is a weekly close below the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). The speaker notes this would be the start of a "macro altcoin season."
• Timeline: Once a macro altcoin season is confirmed, the speaker suggests it could last for multiple months, even up to a year.

Takeaways

• Investors waiting for an "altcoin season" should remain patient, as the conditions discussed have not yet been met.
• Actionable Insight: Monitor the Bitcoin Dominance chart for two key events before considering a significant shift in portfolio allocation towards altcoins:
  1. Early Warning: Watch for a daily close below the 61.8% dominance level.
  2. Strong Confirmation: The primary buy signal for a major altcoin run is a weekly close below the 50-week SMA on the Bitcoin Dominance chart.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Bitcoin's performance is discussed in relation to the broader altcoin market via the Bitcoin Dominance metric.
• A key support level for Bitcoin Dominance is the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). The speaker notes that dominance often bounces off this level, indicating relative strength for Bitcoin.
• As long as Bitcoin Dominance remains above this 20-week SMA, an altcoin season is considered unlikely. This implies that capital is either favoring Bitcoin or is not flowing into altcoins with enough strength to outperform it.
• For an altcoin season to occur, Bitcoin's dominance must break down below its key support levels, indicating that it is underperforming relative to the altcoin market.

Takeaways

• The current market trend favors Bitcoin over altcoins, as its dominance is holding above a key short-term support level (20-week SMA).
• A sustained break and close below the 20-week SMA on the Bitcoin Dominance chart would be the first sign of weakening relative strength for Bitcoin and a potential shift of capital towards altcoins.
• The speaker mentions that followers can access a copy trading tutorial for his Bitcoin trades at virtualbacon.com.