Robinhood Is Not Slowing Down & Meta Wants To Keep Spending | Tech Bros
2 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube1 hr 11 min
Quick Insights

NVIDIA (NVDA) is a top conviction buy after gaining approval to sell its H20 GPU to China, a development that could push the stock towards its $200 price target this year. Robinhood (HOOD) is seen as a "generational company" with a new analyst price target of $125, driven by its leadership in tokenization and potential S&P 500 inclusion. For long-term investors, an analyst report suggests SoFi (SOFI) has a current fair value of $25 per share if it achieves its future growth targets. Finally, The Trade Desk (TTD) is joining the S&P 500, which will create significant buying pressure from index funds and attract new institutional investors.

Detailed Analysis

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • Breaking News: A major development discussed was that NVIDIA is expected to be able to sell its H20 GPU to China again.
    • The company released a statement confirming they are filing applications for licenses and that the "U.S. government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted."
    • This news caused the stock to surge in after-hours trading, breaking $170.
  • Financial Impact: This is considered extremely bullish for the company.
    • The hosts estimate this could add between $8 billion and $12 billion in revenue per quarter, which translates to a potential $50 billion annual run rate from a market segment that Wall Street had previously written off.
  • CEO Acumen: CEO Jensen Huang was praised for his skill in navigating the complex political relationship between the U.S. and China.
  • Broader Market Impact: The news was seen as a positive catalyst for the entire tech sector, lifting the S&P 500, AMD (AMD), and Palantir (PLTR) in overnight trading.
  • Meta Catalyst: Separately, Meta's announcement of building massive new data centers is seen as another huge tailwind for NVIDIA, as they will be a primary supplier of the required chips.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Extremely Bullish. The hosts believe the return of the China market is a massive, unexpected positive development.
  • Actionable Insight: The return of the China business segment is a significant new revenue stream that was not previously priced into the stock. This could lead to analysts raising their earnings and revenue targets for NVDA, potentially pushing the stock price higher. The hosts noted the stock could hit $200 this year.
  • Key Trend: NVIDIA is positioned as the primary beneficiary of the AI arms race, with major companies like Meta committing to tens of billions of dollars in spending on chips. As one host stated, "every single freaking headline... you know who it's great for? NVIDIA."

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • Tokenization Leadership: CEO Vlad Tenev is on a public relations tour to explain and promote tokenization, which the company sees as "the biggest innovation to come into capital markets in the past decade."
    • A financial advisor, Rick Edelman, was quoted predicting that tokenization will eclipse ETFs by the end of the decade and enable 24/7 trading.
  • Analyst Upgrade: A top-ranked analyst from JMP, Devin Ryan, called Robinhood a "generational company."
    • He raised his price target to $125.
    • The report also mentioned a long-term potential price of $400+ per share over the next decade.
  • Regulatory "Noise": An investigation by the Florida Attorney General was dismissed by the hosts as a "nothing burger" and a minor "speeding ticket" that will not impact the company's trajectory.
  • S&P 500 Inclusion: The hosts are highly anticipating HOOD's inclusion in the S&P 500 index, possibly as soon as the next rebalance in September. They believe the company is one of the most deserving candidates.
  • Q2 Earnings Preview: The Street's revenue estimate for Q2 has increased to $908 million. One host is even more bullish, predicting $947 million, citing strong transactional revenue and a small contribution from the recent Bitstamp acquisition.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Very Bullish. The hosts see Robinhood as a "generational company" that is leading a major industry disruption with tokenization.
  • Actionable Insight: The combination of strong analyst support, potential S&P 500 inclusion, and leadership in a new high-growth area (tokenization) provides a strong long-term investment thesis. The hosts believe Wall Street is finally recognizing the company's potential.
  • Risk Factor (Dismissed): While regulatory probes exist, the hosts believe Robinhood's strong legal team can handle them and that they do not pose a material threat to the business.

Meta (META)

  • Massive AI Spending: Mark Zuckerberg announced plans to build massive "multi-gigawatt cluster" data centers to power their AI ambitions, specifically for "superintelligence."
  • Financial Impact: This represents a huge capital expenditure. The hosts noted that each 1-gigawatt cluster could generate $40 to $50 billion in revenue for chip makers like NVIDIA and AMD.
  • Strategic Shift: This move is seen as a calculated and aggressive play to win the AI race, not a desperate one. There are also reports that Meta may shift its AI models from open-source to a closed, proprietary model to better monetize its investment.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish on the company's commitment to AI, which is seen as a necessary and aggressive move. One host expressed a personal Bearish view based on moral objections to the company's vision.
  • Actionable Insight: Meta's massive spending commitment is one of the biggest direct catalysts for semiconductor companies, especially NVIDIA. For investors bullish on the AI infrastructure build-out, Meta's plans provide a clear signal of massive, sustained demand.

SoFi (SOFI)

  • Analyst Report: The same JMP analyst, Devin Ryan, who was bullish on Robinhood also covered SoFi.
    • He maintained his price target of $17.
    • He increased his earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026 to $0.52.
    • Crucially, the report stated that if SOFI achieves $1.75 in EPS by 2030, its fair value today would be $25.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish. The hosts interpreted the analyst report as very positive, despite the price target remaining unchanged.
  • Actionable Insight: The analyst's "fair value" calculation of $25 suggests significant long-term upside from current levels if the company executes on its growth plan. The hosts believe the analyst is being cautious as he is new to covering the stock.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • Market Mover: The stock was seen moving towards $150 in after-hours trading, benefiting from the positive sentiment generated by the NVIDIA news.
  • "Meme Stock" Label: Jim Cramer included PLTR in his "PARK" acronym, which he framed as a list of the "new meme stocks." The hosts view this as a contrarian bullish indicator, as they believe Cramer is being facetiously bearish.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish. The hosts see it as a "generational company" that moves in sympathy with major positive tech news.
  • Actionable Insight: The stock is sensitive to broad AI and tech sentiment. Cramer's "meme stock" label is seen by the hosts as a positive sign for contrarian investors, suggesting mainstream skepticism still exists despite the company's performance.

The Trade Desk (TTD)

  • S&P 500 Inclusion: It was announced that TTD will be joining the S&P 500.
  • Stock Reaction: The stock was up nearly 15% on the news.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish. The hosts view TTD as a high-quality company with an "unbelievable CEO" that deserves its spot in the index.
  • Actionable Insight: Inclusion in the S&P 500 forces index funds to buy the stock, creating significant buying pressure. This is a major validation for the company and can attract a new class of institutional investors.

Investment Themes

Tokenization

  • Context: Described as a revolutionary force in finance that will enable 24/7 trading of assets and create new investment opportunities. It is expected to eventually replace traditional ETFs.
  • Key Players: Robinhood (HOOD) is positioned as a leader in this space, alongside crypto-native firms like Coinbase (COIN) and Kraken.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

  • Context: The AI "arms race" is in full swing, with major tech companies like Meta (META) committing to tens of billions in infrastructure spending. This is creating a massive and sustained demand for high-performance chips.
  • Key Players: NVIDIA (NVDA) is the clear primary beneficiary of this spending. AMD (AMD) is also mentioned as a beneficiary. The hosts believe good news for companies investing in AI is almost always good news for NVIDIA.
Video Description
amit: https://x.com/amitisinvesting roy: https://x.com/Kross_Roads tannor: https://x.com/Futurenvesting 00:00 - Vlad's PR Tour 08:07 - Florida AG 10:29 - Palantir 25:04 - META & Nvidia 37:02 - CPI 40:57 - JMP Securities 55:00 - S&P This podcast is presented by a third party. Robinhood has no direct affiliation, association or sponsorship with or from any of the podcast owners or their related entities, and any use by the podcast owners or within the podcasts of any Robinhood names or trademarks or logos does not indicate any endorsement of these podcasts by Robinhood. Robinhood has no oversight or review of the podcasts.
About Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!