Macroeconomic Outlook

• There are unconfirmed reports, originating from the chairman of Fannie and Freddie Mac, that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is considering resigning.
  • The host notes this is unconfirmed and could be a pressure tactic.
  • The market reaction was mixed, but the general sentiment in the podcast chat was that a resignation would be bullish (68% of the poll).
  • A potential resignation is seen as bullish because his replacement would likely be more "dovish" and cut interest rates sooner.
  • The bearish interpretation is that it could signal political interference with the Fed's independence, creating market uncertainty.
• The US Treasury reported a $27 billion surplus in June on an unadjusted basis. However, on an adjusted basis, it was a $70 billion deficit.
• Tariff revenue from customs duties was $27 billion in June.
• Probabilities for a September rate cut have decreased slightly from 64% to 62% (and later noted as 60.5%).
• Steve Fiorillo believes the Fed must cut rates to get them down to around 3% to unlock the housing market and ease corporate debt refinancing. He predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7,000 by the end of this year and 8,000 next year if this happens.

Takeaways

• Keep a close watch on any official news regarding Jerome Powell's position. A confirmed resignation could lead to significant market volatility, likely favoring growth stocks if it signals faster rate cuts.
• The discussion suggests that despite short-term data, the long-term pressure for the Fed to cut rates is immense due to housing and corporate debt. This creates a generally bullish long-term outlook for equities, particularly small caps and growth stocks that benefit from lower rates.

Fintech Sector

• JPMorgan (JPM) announced it plans to start charging fintech firms like Venmo, Coinbase, and Robinhood for access to customer bank data, which they previously received for free.
• This news caused a sell-off in several fintech stocks, including PayPal (PYPL), Robinhood (HOOD), and SoFi (SOFI).
• The host believes the market overreacted, stating it would be "stupid if the street gets upset that they're going to have to pay a couple more fees" and that it won't "destroy" the operating margins of these companies.

Takeaways

• The sell-off in fintech stocks due to the JPM news could present a buying opportunity for investors who believe, like the host, that the financial impact of these new fees will be minimal.
• This move by JPM highlights the competitive tension between traditional banks and fintech disruptors.

Robinhood (HOOD)

• The stock hit a high of $101.50 during the day but sold off to close at $98.30, partly due to the JPMorgan data fee news.
• CEO Vlad Tenev met with the US Ambassador to the UK, which is seen as a positive development for Robinhood's expansion in the UK market.
• The host believes rate cuts would be bullish for HOOD. While net interest income might decrease slightly (est. $25 million per 25 basis point cut), this would be more than offset by increased trading volumes as investors move money into the market.

Takeaways

• The negative impact from the JPM news may be an overreaction. Investors could see the dip as a buying opportunity if they share the host's view that the fees will not significantly harm margins.
• The company's international expansion, particularly in the UK, remains a key long-term growth driver.
• Robinhood is well-positioned to benefit from a lower interest rate environment, which could reignite retail trading fervor.

SoFi (SOFI)

• The stock closed above $21, showing resilience.
• Steve Fiorillo, a long-time bull, remains annoyed with the company's lack of clarity on its tech platform (Galileo/AWS) but acknowledges the stock's strong performance.
• He states that nothing has fundamentally changed with the company, and the stock is simply participating in a market rally. If the company provides more clarity on its tech platform during the next earnings call, he would become much more positive.

Takeaways

• The stock has strong momentum, but long-term investors should watch the upcoming earnings call for more clarity on the company's technology platform strategy, which has been a point of frustration for some analysts.

PayPal (PYPL)

• The stock was hit hard by the JPMorgan news, falling over 5% to close around $71.
• The host speculates that PayPal might be more impacted by the new data fees than Robinhood or SoFi due to its deeper integration with credit and debit cards from banks like JPM.

Takeaways

• Investors in PayPal should monitor for more details on the financial impact of JPM's new data access fees, as the market perceived PYPL to be more vulnerable than other fintechs.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• The stock hit a high of $167.89 and closed around $165, marking its second consecutive day closing above a $4 trillion market cap.
• CEO Jensen Huang met with former President Trump. Analyst Dan Ives believes this was to negotiate lifting chip restrictions to China, which would be a "massive tailwind" for the company.
• Dan Ives stated, "I think $5 trillion and beyond are next," calling this the "beginning of a three-year tech bull market" led by NVIDIA.
• Steve Fiorillo is also extremely bullish, believing the stock has a "really good shot hitting $200 by the end of the year, maybe even $220."
• Steve emphasizes that NVIDIA is a "freaking free cash flow machine" with incredible, SaaS-like profit margins for a hardware company.

Takeaways

• There is extremely strong bullish sentiment from all commentators on the podcast, with price targets mentioned up to $220.
• The potential easing of China sales restrictions is a major upside catalyst to watch for.
• Despite its massive size, the consensus is that NVIDIA's growth story is far from over, driven by its central role in the AI revolution and its immense profitability.

Tesla (TSLA)

• The stock had a strong day, up over 3% to close at $313, recovering from a dip earlier in the week.
• A positive catalyst was the announcement of a launch event in Mumbai, signaling its entry into the Indian market.
• There is bullish options activity, with one trader buying $500,000 worth of May 2026 $540 strike calls.
• Steve Fiorillo expressed a more cautious/bearish short-term view. He is concerned that Elon Musk's political activities could alienate customers and impact sales, especially as subsidies run out. He plans to let his shares get called away via covered calls.
• The host countered that the market seems to have priced in Musk's behavior, as the stock is higher now than before his most controversial recent tweets.

Takeaways

• The entry into India is a significant potential growth driver.
• There's a clear split in opinion: long-term bulls are focused on the potential of AI, robotics, and new markets, while more cautious investors are worried about near-term sales headwinds and CEO distraction.
• The stock appears to be in a $280 - $320 range. A dip towards the lower end of this range could be an accumulation opportunity for long-term believers.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR)

• The stock has been extremely volatile, dropping from $160 to $40 in a "disgusting" week.
• Tom Lee, the company's chairman, reiterated his thesis that BMNR is an "Ethereum treasury strategy," similar to what MicroStrategy (MSTR) is for Bitcoin.
• The strategy is to acquire more Ethereum per share over time, offering more upside than simply holding ETH.
• Lee believes that just as large nations might buy MSTR to get Bitcoin exposure, large Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan will want to own a large stake in Ethereum for security and will buy into Ethereum treasury strategies like BMNR.
• The host notes that the stock does not yet have options trading. The introduction of options could significantly increase trading volume and capital inflows, similar to what happened with MSTR.

Takeaways

• BMNR is a high-risk, high-reward leveraged bet on the price of Ethereum. It is not for the faint of heart, as evidenced by its recent 75% drop.
• The investment thesis is directly tied to Tom Lee's vision of it becoming the "MicroStrategy of Ethereum." Investors are betting on Lee's strategy and the future appreciation of ETH.
• The future listing of options on BMNR is a key potential catalyst to watch for, as it could attract a new wave of traders and capital.

Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, XRP)

• Bitcoin (BTC): Has been holding its ground around $118,000, showing stability amidst market volatility.
• Ethereum (ETH): Is holding just above the $3,000 level.
• XRP (XRP): Steve Fiorillo is very bullish, believing a lawsuit will be dropped and that XRP is positioned to take on the SWIFT banking network for institutional cross-border payments. He sees it as a key winner in the crypto space due to its partnerships with hundreds of banks.

Takeaways

• Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing relative strength and stability at high price levels.
• XRP is presented as a speculative play with a significant catalyst tied to the outcome of its lawsuit and its potential adoption by financial institutions for cross-border settlement.

Salesforce (CRM)

• The stock is down 21% year-to-date, closing around $257.
• Steve Fiorillo calls it a "screaming buy" at current levels, comparing the opportunity to buying Google when it was out of favor.
• Thesis: The company is incredibly profitable, generating $12.5 billion in free cash flow, and is trading at a cheap valuation (24x this year's earnings, 11x free cash flow).
• He highlights that the company is aggressively buying back stock and has initiated a dividend, rewarding shareholders.
• He believes the market misunderstands the company's AI narrative, which will significantly boost earnings over time.

Takeaways

• Salesforce is presented as a classic "value" play within the tech sector.
• For investors looking for exposure to enterprise software and AI at a reasonable price, CRM could be an attractive opportunity, especially given its strong free cash flow and shareholder return programs (buybacks and dividends). The stock is deeply out of favor, which could mean significant upside if sentiment shifts.

Cisco (CSCO)

• Steve Fiorillo is very bullish, arguing the stock is still disrespected despite being up 48% this year. He believes it will eventually surpass its dot-com bubble all-time high.
• Thesis: The company has transformed from a pure networking hardware company to a software and security subscription business. Security revenue grew 54% year-over-year.
• It generates over $10 billion a year in free cash flow and returns that to shareholders via buybacks and a 2.4% dividend yield.
• Cisco is partnering with NVIDIA to be a prime player in networking for the next generation of AI data center architecture.

Takeaways

• Cisco is no longer just a legacy hardware company; it's a transitioning AI and security play.
• It offers a combination of growth (from AI/security) and value (strong cash flow, buybacks, dividend), making it a potentially safer way to invest in the AI theme compared to high-flying growth stocks.

Other Stocks & Sectors

• Levi's (LEVI): Reported a "massive" earnings beat (EPS beat by 69%), raised its dividend, and stated that tariffs are not an issue for demand. The stock was up 10%.
• Drone Sector (UMAC, Redcat, Aero, D-Pro, Kratos): This sector saw a massive day, with stocks up 10-15% on momentum from news that the Department of Defense (DOD) plans to invest more in drones.
• Google (GOOGL): Closed above the key $180 level, which is seen as bullish. Multiple Wall Street firms reiterated $200 price targets.
• Lemonade (LMND) & Oscar Health (OSCR): These smaller insurance tech stocks have been "taking a beating." Steve Fiorillo is particularly bearish on Lemonade's financials, stating they don't generate enough premium revenue to cover operating expenses. He prefers Oscar over Lemonade.
• CoreWeave (CRWV): Dropped 9%. The stock has seen multiple downgrades tied to its deal for Core Scientific, and with an IPO lockup expiring in September, some investors may be selling early.
• Kraft Heinz (KHC): The stock was up on a report that it is exploring a breakup. It is noted as a high-dividend stock with a 6% yield.
• Plaid (Private): The fintech infrastructure company's valuation has reportedly dropped from $13 billion in 2021 to $6 billion. The host speculates it could be a 2026 or 2027 IPO.