Why Phantom Is Launching Perps + Why Bit Digital Ditched BTC for ETH - Ep. 866
6 days agoUnchainedLaura Shin
Podcast1 hr 13 min
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Quick Insights

The primary investment thesis suggests Ethereum (ETH) is poised to outperform Bitcoin (BTC) due to improving regulatory clarity and its foundational role in the growing digital economy. To act on this, consider BitDigital (BTBT), a company pivoting to become an Ethereum treasury that acquires and stakes ETH for yield, differentiating it from passive ETFs. While this crypto treasury theme is growing, be extremely cautious with companies like BITM and ASST, as their financing structures create a high risk of share dilution and price crashes. This strategy is a direct bet on Ethereum's outperformance, further supported by its growing utility in stablecoins and institutional adoption. Finally, investors should avoid the decentralized exchange token GMX following a recent $42 million security exploit that has suspended platform services and damaged its reputation.

Detailed Analysis

BitDigital (BTBT)

  • BitDigital is a publicly traded company that is pivoting from a Bitcoin miner to an Ethereum (ETH) treasury company.
  • The company recently sold 280 Bitcoin (BTC) and used funds from a $173 million equity raise to purchase ETH, making a significant bet on its outperformance.
  • CEO Sam Tabar believes the market for Bitcoin-proxy companies is "saturated" and that there is more potential upside or "juice" in Ethereum, as it is further from its all-time high.
  • The company's strategy is to "shamelessly copy" the playbook of MicroStrategy (MSTR), but by aggressively acquiring ETH instead of BTC through "financial engineering."
  • BitDigital stakes all of its ETH holdings, which provides a yield that is not available to investors through the current spot ETH ETFs.
  • The company's legacy Bitcoin mining business is still profitable and will be allowed to "run its course" until it is no longer profitable.
  • BitDigital also has a subsidiary named White Fiber, an AI-focused data center business with over $100 million in contracted annual revenue, representing a separate and growing part of the company.

Takeaways

  • Investing in BTBT is a direct bet on the thesis that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin. The company has made a high-conviction shift in its core strategy to reflect this.
  • The company plans to be a major acquirer of ETH, which could be a positive catalyst for its stock if the price of ETH rises.
  • The staking yield provides an additional return stream for the company, differentiating it from passive investment vehicles like ETFs.
  • The White Fiber AI subsidiary adds a layer of diversification away from pure crypto price exposure, which could be seen as a positive for investors looking for exposure to the AI infrastructure trend as well.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The primary bull case for Ethereum discussed is the improving regulatory landscape in the U.S. The end of the "Gary Gensler era" and the classification of ETH as a commodity are seen as major positive developments that have removed a significant price overhang.
  • Ethereum is described as having far more utility than Bitcoin due to its programmability and smart contracts, which can "rewrite the entire financial system."
  • It is considered the only viable blockchain for stablecoins at scale, with the belief that its dominance in this area will increase.
  • Value accrual for ETH is not seen as coming directly from Layer 2 (L2) transaction fees. Instead, the thesis is that the growth of the L2 ecosystem creates "network effects," "mindshare," and a positive "narrative" that drives retail and institutional demand for ETH itself.
  • Major institutions like JP Morgan are reportedly involved with the Ethereum ecosystem, signaling growing mainstream adoption.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents a strong bullish sentiment for Ethereum, driven by regulatory clarity and its foundational role in DeFi, stablecoins, and L2s.
  • Investors should understand that the value proposition presented is less about direct fee capture (tokenomics) and more about Ethereum's role as the base layer for a growing digital economy, which in turn drives demand for the ETH asset.
  • The rise of "ETH Treasury" companies like BitDigital (BTBT) is a new trend that could create sustained buying pressure for ETH.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin is described as "digital yellow gold"—an effective store of value but with limited utility and programmability compared to Ethereum.
  • The business of Bitcoin mining is characterized as very difficult due to the halving event (which cuts revenue every four years) and the constantly increasing network difficulty (hashrate).
  • Efforts to add complex smart contract functionality to Bitcoin are dismissed in the discussion as "not working out."
  • While BitDigital is moving away from Bitcoin, the transcript notes that other companies, like Japan-based MetaPlanet, are actively pursuing a Bitcoin treasury strategy, indicating the theme is still active.

Takeaways

  • The podcast presents a relatively bearish-to-neutral view on Bitcoin in comparison to Ethereum's potential upside. The core argument is that Bitcoin's primary use case is narrower.
  • Investors looking for exposure to programmable blockchain applications might find the arguments for Ethereum more compelling based on this discussion.
  • However, the "digital gold" narrative remains intact, and the treasury strategy pioneered by MicroStrategy is being adopted by international firms, suggesting continued global interest in BTC as a reserve asset.

Crypto Treasury Companies (Investment Theme)

  • This is a major investment trend where public companies raise capital to acquire large amounts of cryptocurrency for their balance sheets, effectively becoming publicly-traded proxies for the underlying crypto asset.
  • A major risk factor was identified with companies that use PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) deals to fund their crypto purchases. This can lead to massive future share dilution.
  • Case Studies: Apexi (UPEXI) and Sharplink (SHLK) both saw their stock prices crash by approximately 70% when the shares from their PIPE deals became eligible for sale, flooding the market.
  • Companies identified as potentially "primed for a price crash" due to similar financing structures and massive potential dilution include:
    • Bitmine (BITM)
    • Asset Entities (ASST)
    • SRM Holdings (merging with Justin Sun's company)
    • Nakamoto (merging with KindlyMD)
  • Real-time example: Bitmine (BITM) stock dropped significantly (~40-50%) immediately after filing to register more shares, showing extreme investor sensitivity to potential dilution.

Takeaways

  • Investing in crypto treasury companies can be extremely high-risk. While they offer a way to get crypto exposure in a traditional brokerage account, they come with corporate-level risks.
  • Extreme caution is advised. Retail investors should be aware of the "time bomb" of share dilution, especially for the companies funded via large PIPE deals.
  • The advice given in the podcast is for retail investors not to play the "NAV guessing game" and to consider waiting until after major dilution events have occurred for a more stable and true price to be established.

GMX (GMX)

  • GMX was mentioned as an earlier decentralized perpetuals exchange that was unable to achieve the same scale and liquidity as newer platforms like Hyperliquid.
  • Major Negative Event: The news roundup reported that GMX suffered a $42 million exploit in its GLP liquidity pool on Arbitrum and Avalanche.
  • As a result of the exploit, trading and minting were suspended on the platform.

Takeaways

  • The recent $42 million exploit is a significant bearish event and a major red flag for the protocol's security.
  • Investors holding GMX or providing liquidity in its GLP pools face significant risk. The suspension of services and loss of funds severely damages the platform's reputation and viability.

Pump Token (PUMP)

  • PUMP is the new token from Pump.fun, a popular meme coin launchpad on the Solana blockchain.
  • An Initial Coin Offering (ICO) was scheduled to begin on July 12.
  • The ICO price is $0.004 per token, implying a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4 billion.
  • Risk/Restriction: The ICO is not available to users in the U.S. and the U.K. due to legal restrictions.
  • Futures for the PUMP token were already trading on Hyperliquid at a premium to the ICO price ($0.0056), signaling strong initial demand.

Takeaways

  • The PUMP ICO represents a ground-floor opportunity in a popular project within the Solana ecosystem.
  • However, it is an inherently high-risk investment. The high demand seen in the futures market does not guarantee future performance.
  • The exclusion of U.S. and U.K. investors is a critical factor to note for individuals in those regions.
Episode Description
In the first half of this dual episode, Phantom co-founder Brandon Millman joins Unchained to break down why his Solana-first wallet is launching perpetual swaps, and why it chose to integrate with Hyperliquid over any Solana-native option. Then, Bit Digital’s Sam Tabar explains why the public company ditched its profitable Bitcoin mining business, went all-in on ETH, and what happened when he told Michael Saylor. FalconX Sam Tabar, Chief Executive Officer of Bit Digital, Inc Brandon Millman, CEO and co-founder of Phantom Phantom Unchained: Phantom Wallet Launches Direct Perpetual Trading With Hyperliquid Phantom blog post: Introducing Phantom Perps Dragonfly’s Austin Marrazza tweet Bit Digital The Block: Bit Digital swaps entire treasury into Ethereum, says it's now a top public ETH holder after a $173 million splurge Treasury companies Unchained:  These 4 Crypto Treasury Companies Are Primed for a Price Crash BitMine Crashes 39% After It Files to Raise $2 Billion for More ETH Timestamps: Phantom 🎬 0:00 Intro ⚡ 1:36 Why Phantom is launching perps—and why now was the moment to do it 💥 6:08 How they landed on 40x leverage 💸 7:48 How Phantom plans to make money from its new trading product 🚫 8:50 Why U.S. users are left out (for now) 🔗 10:36 Why Hyperliquid won out over Solana-native DEXes ⚔️ 12:55 Whether wallets and dapps are headed for a showdown 🪪 17:22 Why Brandon believes wallets will be the new gateway to crypto 📱 18:45 How social features could redefine the wallet experience 🌅 22:45 What Brandon hopes Phantom becomes over the next five years Timestamps: Bit Digital 💥 26:35 Why Bit Digital ditched Bitcoin for Ethereum—and how Gary Gensler played a role 💰 28:31 How they walked away from a profitable BTC mining business 🪙 32:58 Why Sam says there’s no better home for stablecoins than Ethereum 🗣️ 34:09 What came out of Sam’s surprising conversation with Michael Saylor about crypto treasuries 🤔 37:10 Whether ETH’s value accrual model needs a fundamental rethink 📈 42:21 How Bit Digital plans to ramp up its ETH accumulation 🧠 44:40 What their new AI venture is really aiming to do Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
About Unchained

Unchained

By Laura Shin

Crypto assets and blockchain technology are about to transform every trust-based interaction of our lives, from financial services to identity to the Internet of Things. In this podcast, host Laura Shin, an independent journalist covering all things crypto, talks with industry pioneers about how crypto assets and blockchains will change the way we earn, spend and invest our money. Tune in to find out how Web 3.0, the decentralized web, will revolutionize our world. Disclosure: I'm a nocoiner.