Macro Outlook & Altcoin Season

• The speaker believes we are not yet in a full-blown altcoin season, which is a period where altcoins consistently outperform Bitcoin.
• Several conditions must be met for a true altcoin season to begin:
  • Bitcoin (BTC) must be in a clear bull run (this condition is currently met).
  • Bitcoin Dominance (the percentage of the total crypto market cap that is Bitcoin) needs to break down on a weekly timeframe. This means it needs to form a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and break below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA). Short-term drops in dominance, like the one after the Trump election, have been traps.
  • Ethereum (ETH) must outperform Bitcoin. The speaker notes the ETH/BTC chart is looking promising, forming a higher low on the weekly chart for the first time in a long time.
  • Global Liquidity must be increasing. The speaker tracks this with the Global Liquidity Index on TradingView. While it's showing promising signs, it has not yet confirmed a sustained uptrend.
• The speaker points to several "stealth QE" (Quantitative Easing) actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve that are positive for market liquidity:
  • Overnight Repo Injections: The Fed recently injected $11 billion into the overnight repo market, a significant move not seen in five years, signaling they are willing to provide short-term liquidity to banks.
  • Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR): The Fed has proposed easing the SLR for major banks, which would allow them to buy more assets (including treasuries), effectively increasing liquidity in the financial system.
• The speaker's timeline for a potential start to a real altcoin season is Q4 2024, around the September FOMC meeting. This is when a rate cut is priced in by the market and when the SLR changes might take effect.

Takeaways

• Patience is key. Don't jump the gun and go all-in on risky altcoins. The conditions for a sustained altcoin season are not yet confirmed.
• While short-term (e.g., one month) trades in altcoins can be profitable, be prepared to take profits quickly as these rallies may not last.
• The speaker recommends holding a majority of your portfolio (over 50%) in Bitcoin until the altcoin season is clearly confirmed.
• Monitor key indicators: Bitcoin Dominance (weekly chart), the ETH/BTC ratio, and the Global Liquidity Index. A confirmed uptrend in liquidity and a breakdown in dominance would be the strongest signals.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• The speaker is very bullish on Bitcoin, noting it is in a "raging bull market" and just made a new high of $116,000 during the stream.
• As long as Bitcoin's price stays above its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), it is considered to be in a bull run. The 50-week SMA is currently at $87,000.
• The area between the 20-week SMA and the 50-week SMA is described as a "really good buying range" for accumulating Bitcoin.

Takeaways

• The primary strategy should be holding a significant position in Bitcoin. The speaker states that not having more than 50% of your portfolio in Bitcoin is the "biggest mistake" you can make right now.
• Dips towards the 20-week SMA represent strong buying opportunities.
• The bull market is considered intact as long as the price remains above the 50-week SMA (currently $87,000).

Ethereum (ETH)

• The speaker is bullish on Ethereum, seeing it as a crucial leader for the broader altcoin market.
• A key bullish signal is the ETH/BTC price ratio, which is forming a higher low on the weekly chart. This suggests Ethereum is beginning to show sustained strength against Bitcoin.
• For an altcoin season to happen, Ethereum must outperform Bitcoin first. This is a critical signal to watch.
• The speaker is using trading bots to accumulate ETH, with a strategy that has a liquidation price of $600, which is considered extremely safe.

Takeaways

• Holding Ethereum is considered a relatively safe way to get exposure to the altcoin market before a full-blown altcoin season begins.
• Watch the ETH/BTC chart. Continued strength and a confirmed higher low on the weekly timeframe would be a strong indicator for the health of the entire altcoin market.

Solana (SOL)

• The speaker is bullish on Solana and is actively accumulating it using trading bots.
• The trading bot strategy is described as "aggressive," with a lower buying range set at $95.
• The speaker believes there is a "very little chance that Solana doesn't make a new high" if a true altcoin season occurs.
• The bot strategy is set up to be very safe, with a liquidation price of $40.

Takeaways

• Solana is viewed as a core large-cap altcoin holding for the current cycle.
• The speaker is actively buying (DCA'ing) Solana at current prices down to a low of $95. This range is considered a "value range" for accumulation.

Ripple (XRP)

• The speaker is bullish on XRP and wants to add it to their long-term portfolio using a trading bot.
• A specific accumulation range for the bot has been identified:
  • Lower Range: $1.45. This price is calculated based on a potential drop in the XRP/BTC ratio combined with a drop in Bitcoin's price to its 50-week SMA ($87,000). This is the "absolute lowest level" the speaker would want to see while remaining bullish.
  • Upper Range (Take Profit): $6.00. This is considered a conservative bull market target, with the speaker having previously mentioned a $6 to $8 range.
• Using a 1:1 margin ratio for the bot would result in a liquidation price of $0.41, which is considered very safe.

Takeaways

• XRP is considered a potential long-term holding for the bull run.
• A potential strategy is to accumulate XRP within the $1.45 to $6.00 range. The bot strategy automates buying on dips towards the lower end and selling on pumps towards the higher end.

BitTensor (TAO)

• The speaker is very bullish on BitTensor, identifying it as the likely leading Layer-1 blockchain for the AI narrative.
• A specific accumulation range for a trading bot has been set:
  • Lower Range: $160. This level is based on significant support lows from late 2023 and 2024. A break below this would be a major bearish signal.
  • Upper Range (Take Profit): $1,000. This target is based on a potential market cap of $10 billion to $20 billion, which is considered a reasonable target for a top-20 project in a peak bull market.
• The speaker believes it's hard to see TAO not making a run if a sustained altcoin season materializes.

Takeaways

• BitTensor is a key play on the AI crypto narrative.
• The range between current prices and $160 is seen as an accumulation zone.
• A price target of $1,000 is considered a realistic, not overly bullish, take-profit level for the peak of the bull market.

Superverse (SUPER)

• The speaker is bullish on Superverse as a play on the crypto gaming narrative.
• The price chart structure is noted as being very similar to BitTensor's, respecting key lows from late 2023.
• A specific accumulation range for a trading bot has been set:
  • Lower Range: $0.35. This is set just below the major support lows around $0.37.
  • Upper Range (Take Profit): $3.50. This target is based on the previous all-time high from the 2021 gaming bull run.
• The bot strategy is designed to be safe, with a 1:1 margin ratio giving a liquidation price of $0.075, near the all-time lows.

Takeaways

• Superverse is a portfolio holding for exposure to the gaming sector.
• The accumulation zone is between current prices and $0.35.
• A conservative take-profit target is $3.50, which would be a retest of its previous cycle high.

Pepe (PEPE)

• The speaker is bullish on Pepe, considering it the one meme coin that is "just going to continue to run this cycle."
• A specific accumulation range for a trading bot has been set:
  • Lower Range: 0.000005. This level is chosen to respect the recent "higher low" structure on the chart.
  • Upper Range (Take Profit): 0.00006. This target is based on Pepe reaching a $25 billion market cap, which would be about one-third of Dogecoin's peak market cap from the last cycle.
• The speaker believes Pepe has a good shot to take significant market share from Dogecoin, but does not believe it will overtake Doge.

Takeaways

• Pepe is considered a top-tier meme coin for this cycle.
• The strategy involves buying on dips towards the 0.000005 support level.
• A long-term target of 0.00006 is set for taking profits, representing a potential ~6x from current levels mentioned in the stream. Investors can adjust this upper range based on their own risk tolerance.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

• Dogecoin was discussed in the context of valuing Pepe.
• The speaker believes no meme coin will overtake Dogecoin this cycle.
• The reasoning is that Dogecoin has a 10-year history and is its own proof-of-work blockchain, similar to Litecoin. This status makes it much easier for institutions to adopt (e.g., in ETFs) and gives it a network effect that is very difficult for newer meme coins to replicate.

Takeaways

• While other meme coins like Pepe may have high upside, Dogecoin is viewed as the "blue chip" of the meme coin space due to its unique history and technical foundation.
• This makes Dogecoin a potentially more stable, institution-friendly long-term holding within the meme coin category compared to tokens on other chains.