S&P HITS ALL TIME HIGHS, BITCOIN ALL TIME HIGHS | MARKET CLOSE
7 days agoAmit Kukreja@amitinvesting
YouTube2 hr 23 min
Quick Insights

With NVIDIA (NVDA) surpassing a $4 trillion market cap, a key upcoming catalyst is a potential lift on China chip export controls, which could drive the stock toward the $215-$225 price target. Bitcoin (BTC) is showing extreme bullish momentum after a suspected large institutional purchase pushed it to a new all-time high above $116,000. Consider the recent dip in Robinhood (HOOD) stock, caused by a state-level probe, as a potential buying opportunity ahead of long-term growth from its new crypto staking features. The drone sector, including stocks like Redcat (RCAT) and Archer (ACHR), has a new bullish catalyst from increased military spending orders. Lastly, Ethereum (ETH) has broken the key psychological level of $3,000, signaling a bullish breakout for the asset which has a long-term analyst target of $10,000.

Detailed Analysis

Here are the investment insights from the podcast transcript.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The host highlighted that Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $113,000.
  • During the live show, Bitcoin experienced a massive and rapid price surge, described as a "$5,000 candle." It jumped from $113,000 to $117,000 in a matter of minutes before settling around $116,000.
  • The host speculated this was not retail buying but a large institutional or "sovereign wealth fund" purchase, indicating serious money entering the market.
  • This surge caused a massive short squeeze, with $415 million in short positions being liquidated in the past hour.
  • With this move, Bitcoin's market capitalization surpassed that of Google (GOOGL).

Takeaways

  • Bullish Momentum: The powerful move to new all-time highs signals very strong bullish sentiment.
  • Institutional Interest: The size and speed of the purchase suggest that large, institutional players are actively buying Bitcoin, which can provide a strong price floor and fuel further gains.
  • Volatility Warning: While the move is positive, the rapid surge is a reminder of Bitcoin's extreme volatility. Shorting Bitcoin in this environment is extremely risky due to the potential for massive short squeezes.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The host mentioned that influential analyst Tom Lee of Fundstrat has a long-term thesis that Ethereum could reach $10,000.
  • During the show, Ethereum broke through the key psychological resistance level of $3,000.
  • The move is seen as part of the broader crypto rally led by Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Breakout: Crossing the $3,000 mark is a significant technical and psychological milestone that could attract more buyers and lead to further upward momentum.
  • Leveraged Plays: For those who are very bullish on Ethereum's long-term potential, the host mentioned proxy stocks like Bitmine (BMNR), which aim to provide leveraged returns on ETH's performance. These are much higher risk than holding ETH directly.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA's market capitalization officially closed above $4 trillion for the first time, a major milestone for the company.
  • Bullish Catalyst: CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to meet with President Trump before a trip to China. The host noted that any progress on lifting chip export controls to China would be "very, very bullish" for NVIDIA's revenue.
  • The stock's price-to-sales ratio was mentioned as 26x, which the host considered "not crazy" given its phenomenal growth rate.
  • A guest on the show, Steve, stated he believes the stock is going "way higher" and could potentially reach $215-$225 per share, a target previously thought to be aggressive.

Takeaways

  • Strong Bullish Sentiment: NVIDIA continues to be a market leader with strong momentum. The $4 trillion valuation cements its place as one of the world's most important companies.
  • Key Catalyst to Watch: The outcome of the meeting with Trump and the potential for regaining access to the Chinese market is a critical upcoming catalyst that could drive the stock significantly higher.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • The stock was trading near $100 before being hit by negative news after market hours.
  • Bullish Developments:
    • Robinhood officially launched crypto staking for Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) in the United States, a significant new feature.
    • CEO Vlad Tenev's new AI startup, Harmonics, raised $100 million. The host speculated about potential synergies between this "mathematical superintelligence" company and Robinhood's financial platform.
  • Bearish Development:
    • The Florida Attorney General announced a probe into Robinhood's "deceptive" crypto marketing practices. The host believes this is a minor issue ("nothing burger") but acknowledged it will create negative headline risk and likely cause the stock to dip in the short term.
    • The stock fell from nearly $99 to below $97 in after-hours trading following the news.

Takeaways

  • Short-Term Risk, Potential Opportunity: The Florida probe is a significant short-term risk that could push the stock price down. For investors who believe the issue is minor, this could present a buying opportunity at a lower price.
  • Long-Term Growth Drivers: The introduction of staking and the CEO's focus on advanced AI point to continued innovation and potential long-term growth drivers for the business.

Apple (AAPL)

  • A major topic of discussion was a report suggesting that CEO Tim Cook should be fired due to Apple's perceived failure to innovate in the AI space.
  • The sentiment is that Apple is falling behind competitors like Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI in the AI revolution.
  • While the host and guest Dan Ives don't necessarily agree he should be fired, they believe he must make a major move, such as a large acquisition (e.g., Perplexity AI), to catch up.
  • A guest, Steve, had a much stronger take, suggesting Cook is an operator, not a visionary, and should be replaced. He floated a "thought experiment" of Apple merging with Meta (META) and having Mark Zuckerberg take over as CEO.

Takeaways

  • Innovation Risk: There is growing concern on Wall Street about Apple's AI strategy. The company's ability to successfully integrate meaningful AI features into its ecosystem is a major factor for its future growth.
  • Pressure for M&A: Apple is under immense pressure to either build or buy its way into a leadership position in AI. Watch for any news related to AI-focused acquisitions.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • The stock saw positive momentum, trading around $310.
  • Bullish Catalysts:
    • Robotaxi is expanding, with plans for the Bay Area and an official application filed for operation in Arizona.
    • Elon Musk announced that Grok AI will be integrated into Tesla vehicles as soon as next week.
  • Bearish Risks:
    • A guest, Steve, expressed a very bearish view, stating that Elon Musk should be fired for his political commentary and lack of focus on Tesla.
    • Steve argued that Musk's actions create risk for the company and that he has a history of overpromising and under-delivering on products like the Cybertruck and Full Self-Driving.

Takeaways

  • AI & Robotaxi Narrative: The bull case for Tesla is heavily tied to its progress in AI and the expansion of its Robotaxi network. Positive news on these fronts is a key driver for the stock.
  • "Elon Risk" is a Factor: Investors must be comfortable with the volatility that comes with Elon Musk's leadership and public persona. His actions can significantly impact the stock price, both positively and negatively.

Investment Themes & Other Stocks

High-Risk Crypto Plays

  • Bitmine (BMNR): Mentioned as a high-risk, high-reward "Ethereum treasury" company. It's a leveraged bet on the price of ETH, meaning it can see explosive gains but also suffer massive losses. It was down 33% on the day discussed.
  • Takeaway: Only suitable for investors with a very high risk tolerance and a long-term bullish view on Ethereum.

Retail Sector Health

  • Levi's (LEVI): The company reported a massive earnings beat, raised its dividend, and gave strong guidance, causing the stock to jump 12% after hours.
  • Takeaway: The host viewed this as a very bullish sign for the health of the consumer and the broader retail sector. Strong performance from a company like Levi's suggests consumers still have disposable income.

Drone Technology Stocks

  • Redcat (RCAT), Archer (ACHR), UMAC: These and other drone-related stocks saw a spike in after-hours trading.
  • Catalyst: The Defense Secretary issued new orders to ramp up drone production and deployment for the military.
  • Takeaway: This represents a significant bullish catalyst for the entire drone sector. Increased government spending could be a major tailwind for these companies.

High Price-to-Sales (P/S) Stocks

  • A watchlist of "expensive" stocks was created, including Palantir (PLTR), Rocket Lab (RKLB), ASTS, and Cloudflare (NET). These companies trade at very high multiples of their revenue.
  • Takeaway: These are high-growth, high-risk investments. Their valuations are based on expectations of massive future growth, not current earnings. They are prone to high volatility. Investors are betting on them becoming the next generation of market leaders.
Video Description
twitter: https://x.com/amitisinvesting 00:00 - NVDA 05:00 - BMNR 12:00 - Market Close 25:00 - Levis Earnings 29:00 - Apple 56:28 - Financials 2:09:57 - Steve Joins
About Amit Kukreja

Amit Kukreja

By @amitinvesting

Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!